Paro y voto: ¿afecta al voto la experiencia de desempleo?

• Miguel Caínzos ^[1] ; Carmen Voces ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidade de Santiago de Compostela

     Universidade de Santiago de Compostela

     Santiago de Compostela, España

     
  2. [2] Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia

     Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia

     Madrid, España

     
• Localización: Revista de estudios políticos, ISSN 0048-7694, Nº 168, 2015, págs. 115-150
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.18042/cepc/rep.168.04
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen
  • español

    Estudiamos los efectos electorales de la experiencia de desempleo, utilizando datos de encuestas postelectorales para todas las elecciones generales celebradas en España entre 1979 y 2011. Se evalúan cinco hipótesis sobre la relación entre paro y voto: inhibición; castigo generalizado; propiedad del tema; castigo condicionado a la afinidad ideológica; y politización de la experiencia de desempleo por los electores de izquierdas. Los resultados solo respaldan la primera hipótesis: estar en paro aumenta la probabilidad de abstenerse en siete de las diez elecciones. En cambio, no hay indicios de voto económico egocéntrico basado en el paro. Los parados no usan su voto para castigar al partido gobernante o para dar su apoyo al partido propietario del tema del desempleo, ni siquiera aunque se contemple la posibilidad de que la ideología modere los efectos del paro.

  • English

    We study the electoral effects of unemployment experience, using survey data for all the general elections held in Spain between 1979 and 2011. We test five hypotheses on the relationship between unemployment and vote: inhibition; overall punishment; issue ownership; punishment conditional upon ideological affinity; and politicization of the unemployment experience by left-wing voters. Our results support only the first hypothesis: being unemployed increases the probability of abstaining in seven out of ten elections. On the other hand, there is no indication of egocentric economic voting based on unemployment experience. The unemployed do not use their vote to punish the incumbent party or to support the party owning the unemployment issue. This conclusion stands even if we take into account the possibility that ideology moderates the effects of unemployment.

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