Nested identification of subjective probabilities

• Jacques H. Dreze ^[1]
  1. [1] Université Catholique de Louvain

     Université Catholique de Louvain

     Arrondissement de Nivelles, Bélgica

     
• Localización: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, ISSN 1869-4195, Vol. 3, Nº. 1-2, 2012 (Ejemplar dedicado a: Salvador Barberà), págs. 259-271
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1007/s13209-011-0049-4
• Enlaces
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• Resumen

  • The theory of games against nature relies on complete preferences among all conceivable acts (case 1). Aumann and Drèze (Am Econ J Microecon 1(1):1–16, 2009) consider situations where preferences are defined only for a given set of acts (case 2). We extend these results to situations where (i) only the set of optimal elements from a given set of acts is known (case 3); (ii) only a single optimal act is known (case 4). To these four cases correspond four nested sets of admissible subjective probabilities. Cases 3 and 4 define the extent to which probabilities must be specified to solve a decision problem.