Fragilidad institucional y sostenibilidad fiscal en Centroamérica: un enfoque cuántico y contrafactual estructural

• Autores: Roberto Yoan Castillo Dieguez, María Benilde Rincón García
• Localización: Revista de fomento social, ISSN-e 2695-6462, ISSN 0015-6043, Nº 314, 2026, págs. 59-87
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.32418/rfs.6230
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    El estudio analiza la fragilidad institucional y la sostenibilidad fiscal en los países del Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA) mediante un enfoque cuántico y contrafactual. Se desarrolla un modelo funcional basado en la teoría cuántica de campos para estimar trayectorias metaestables de fragilidad soberana e identificar transiciones críticas entre regímenes de estabilidad. Además, se construye un índice ESG soberano mediante análisis factorial y se aplica el control sintético extendido para evaluar el impacto de reformas institucionales y eventos relevantes durante 2008–2023. Los resultados muestran que la calidad de la gobernanza, el control de la corrupción y la cohesión social reducen la vulnerabilidad fiscal, mientras que las debilidades institucionales amplifican los efectos de choques externos. En conjunto, el modelo propuesto constituye una herramienta empírica para anticipar escenarios de fragilidad estructural y orientar políticas de sostenibilidad macroinstitucional en Centroamérica.

  • English

    The study analyses institutional fragilit y and fiscal sustainabilit y in the countries of the Central American Integration System (SICA) using a quantum and counterfactual approach. A functional model based on quantum field theory is developed to estimate metastable trajectories of sovereign fragility and identify critical transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, a sovereign ESG index is constructed using factor analysis, and extended synthetic control is applied to assess the impact of institutional reforms and relevant events during 2008–2023. The results show that the quality of governance, control of corruption and social cohesion reduce fiscal vulnerability, whilst institutional weaknesses amplify the effects of external shocks. Taken together, the proposed model constitutes an empirical tool for anticipating scenarios of structural fragility and guiding policies for macro-institutional sustainability in Central America.

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