Resumen de Unity in adversity: has the grand coalition survived fragmentation and COVID-19 in the 9th EuropeanParliament?

Nathalie Brack, Awenig Marié, Olivier Costa

• The article explores the impact of political fragmentation and the Covid-19pandemic on coalition formation in the 9th term of the European Parliament(EP) from 2019 to 2024. Historically dominated by a grand coalition betweenthe European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D),the EP has faced increased fragmentation with the decline of mainstreampolitical groups. This article examines the impact of this fragmentation onthe coalition patterns, focusing on the behaviour of the main political groups(EPP and S&D) and exploring the involvement of smaller groups. Using a newdataset of roll-call votes, it shows that the higher fragmentation led to moreconsensus in the EP and led the way to a super grand coalition. It alsodemonstrates a shift towards more left-wing coalitions compared to previousterms. Finally, it also highlights the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on thecoalition patterns in the EP.