Unity in adversity: has the grand coalition survived fragmentation and COVID-19 in the 9th EuropeanParliament?

• Nathalie Brack ^[1] ; Awenig Marié ^[1] ; Olivier Costa
  1. [1] Université Libre de Bruxelles

     Université Libre de Bruxelles

     Arrondissement Brussel-Hoofdstad, Bélgica

     
• Localización: The Journal of legislative studies, ISSN 1357-2334, Vol. 31, Nº. 2, 2025, págs. 335-362
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1080/13572334.2024.2443875
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • The article explores the impact of political fragmentation and the Covid-19pandemic on coalition formation in the 9th term of the European Parliament(EP) from 2019 to 2024. Historically dominated by a grand coalition betweenthe European People’s Party (EPP) and the Socialists and Democrats (S&D),the EP has faced increased fragmentation with the decline of mainstreampolitical groups. This article examines the impact of this fragmentation onthe coalition patterns, focusing on the behaviour of the main political groups(EPP and S&D) and exploring the involvement of smaller groups. Using a newdataset of roll-call votes, it shows that the higher fragmentation led to moreconsensus in the EP and led the way to a super grand coalition. It alsodemonstrates a shift towards more left-wing coalitions compared to previousterms. Finally, it also highlights the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on thecoalition patterns in the EP.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Attina, F. (1990). The voting behaviour of the European Parliament members and theproblem of the Europarties. European Journal of Political...
  • Bickerton, C. J., Hodson, D., & Puetter, U. (2015). The new intergovernmentalism:European integration in the Post-Maastricht era. JCMS:...
  • Bolleyer, N., & Salát, O. (2021). Parliaments in times of crisis: COVID-19, populismand executive dominance. West European Politics, 44(5–6),...
  • Bowler, S., & McElroy, G. (2015). Political group cohesion and ‘hurrah’ voting in theEuropean Parliament. Journal of European Public Policy,...
  • Brack, N. (2017). Opposing Europe in the European Parliament: Rebels and radicals inthe chamber. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Brack, N., Costa, O., & Marié, A. (2021). The European Parliament and COVID-19:Organisational adaptations and their implications on parliamentary...
  • Brack, N., Costa, O., & Marié, A. (2023). Dealing with fragmentation: The new pol-itical equilibrium and coalition dynamics in the European...
  • Brack, N., & Marié, A. (2024a). From fringe to front? Assessing the voting influence ofthe radical right in the European Parliament (Vol....
  • Brack, N., & Marié, A. (2024b). Would a shift to the right in the elections lead to achange in the central coalition in the European Parliament?...
  • Braghiroli, S. (2022). The European Parliament put to the test by COVID-19: Votingdynamics and coalition patterns of the EP’s first response...
  • Bressanelli, E. (2012). National parties and group membership in the EuropeanParliament: Ideology or pragmatism? Journal of European Public...
  • Broniecki, P., & Høyland, B. (2023). When all votes were recorded: An empiricalassessment of selection bias in scaled preferences and...
  • Buzogány, A., & Ćetković, S. (2021). Fractionalized but ambitious? Voting on energyand climate policy in the European Parliament. Journal...
  • Carruba, C., Gabel, M., Murray, L., Clough, R., Montgomery, E., & Schambach, R.(2006). Off the record: Unrecorded legislative votes, selection...
  • Chiru, M. (2023). The resilience of parliamentary oversight during the COVID-19pandemic. West European Politics, 47(2), 408–425. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2023.2246115
  • Costa, O., & Marié, A. (2023). Is there an alternative to consensus? The impact of the2014 coalition deal on voting behaviour in the Eighth...
  • Costello, R. (2022). How does the composition of the European Parliament shape itsrole in EU decision-making? Journal of European Public Policy,...
  • Depauw, S. (2003). Government party discipline in parliamentary democracies: Thecases of Belgium, France and the United Kingdom in the 1990s....
  • Font, N. (2020). Competing principals and non-vote decisions in the EuropeanParliament. Parliamentary Affairs, 73(1), 166–185. https://doi.org/10.1093/pa/gsy043
  • Griglio, E. (2020). Parliamentary oversight under the Covid-19 emergency: Strivingagainst executive dominance. The Theory and Practice of...
  • Hix, S. (2002). Parliamentary behavior with two principals: Preferences, parties, andvoting in the European Parliament. American Journal of...
  • Hix, S. (2009). What to expect in the 2009–14 European Parliament: Return of thegrand coalition? (Working paper). European Policy Analysis,...
  • Hix, S., & Høyland, B. (2013). Empowerment of the European parliament. AnnualReview of Political Science, 16(1), 171–189. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-polisci-032311-110735
  • Hix, S., Kreppel, A., & Noury, A. (2003). The party system in the EuropeanParliament: Collusive or competitive? JCMS: Journal of Common...
  • Hix, S., & Noury, A. (2009). After enlargement: Voting patterns in the sixthEuropean Parliament. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 34(2),...
  • Hix, S., & Noury, A. G. (2024). The 2024 European Parliament Elections: potentialoutcome and consequences (Working paper). Swedish Institute...
  • Hix, S., Noury, A. G., & Roland, G. (2007). Democratic politics in the EuropeanParliament. Cambridge University Press.
  • Hix, S., Noury, A. G., & Roland, G. (2019). Changing political cleavages in advanceddemocracies: Evidence from the European Parliament...
  • Hobolt, S. (2024, June 14). The 2024 European Parliament elections (Workingpaper). UK in a Changing Europe. https://ukandeu.ac.uk/the-2024-european-parliament-elections/
  • Hug, S. (2010). Selection effects in roll call votes. British Journal of Political Science,40(1), 225–235. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0007123409990160
  • Hurka, S. (2013). Changing the output: The logic of amendment success in theEuropean Parliament’s ENVI Committee. European Union Politics,...
  • Kaniok, P., & Mocek, O. (2017). Roll call votes in the European Parliament: A goodsample or a poisoned dead end? Parliaments, Estates...
  • Kreppel, A. (2000). Rules, ideology and coalition formation in the EuropeanParliament: Past, present and future. European Union Politics,...
  • Kreppel, A., & Hix, S. (2003). From ‘grand coalition’ to left-right confrontation.Explaining the shifting structure of party competition...
  • Kreppel, A., & Tsebelis, G. (1999). Coalition formation in the European Parliament.Comparative Political Studies, 32(8), 933–966. https://doi.org/10.1177/0010414099032008002
  • Marié, A. (2019). European Parliament: Is the grand coalition really a thing of thepast? Bruges Political Research Papers, 75, College of...
  • Marié, A., & Brack, N. (2024, June 9). Un Parlement Européen plus fragmenté quejamais (Working paper). The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/un-parlement-europeen-plus-fragmente-que-jamais-231953
  • McElroy, G., & Benoit, K. (2012). Policy positioning in the European Parliament.European Union Politics, 13(1), 150–167. https://doi.org/10.1177/1465116511416680
  • Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1963). Constituency influence in congress. AmericanPolitical Science Review, 57(1), 45–56. https://doi.org/10.2307/1952717
  • Mühlböck, M., & Yordanova, N. (2017). When legislators choose not to decide:Abstentions in the European Parliament. European Union Politics,...
  • Novak, S., Rozenberg, O., & Bendjaballah, S. (2021). Enduring consensus: Why theEU legislative process stays the same. Journal of European...
  • Ripoll Servant, A. (2019). The European Parliament after the 2019 elections: Testingthe boundaries of the ‘Cordon Sanitaire’. Journal of Contemporary...
  • Ripoll Servent, A., & De Feo, A. (2023). The European Parliament under COVID-19:Institutional adaptation in times of pandemics. In O....
  • Rose, R., & Borz, G. (2013). Aggregation and representation in European Parliamentparty groups. West European Politics, 36(3), 474–497....
  • Settembri, P., & Neuhold, C. (2009). Achieving consensus through committees: Doesthe European Parliament manage?* JCMS: Journal of Common...
  • Thierse, S. (2016). Going on record: Revisiting the logic of roll-call vote requests inthe European parliament. European Union Politics, 17(2),...
  • Truchlewski, Z., Schelkle, W., & Ganderson, J. (2021). Buying time for democracies?European Union emergency politics in the time of COVID-19....
  • Trumm, S. (2015). Voting procedures and parliamentary representation in theEuropean Parliament. JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, 53(5),...
  • Westlake, M. (2023). They are no different, they are much the same … ?’ Post-2019inter-institutional dynamics in the European Union. In O....
  • Yordanova, N., & Mühlböck, M. (2015). Tracing the selection bias in roll call votes:Party group cohesion in the European Parliament. European...