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México
La aprobación del mandatario de turno ha constituido un predictor razonablemente confiable del éxito o la derrota del partido en el gobierno en Costa Rica. Para comprobarlo se conformó una muestra que abarcó los comicios presidenciales celebrados entre 1982 y 2022. Los resultados sugieren que el votante costarricense tiende a premiar o castigar al candidato presidencial oficialista en dependencia de la percepción que tienen sobre el desempeño del mandatario de turno. Los comicios de 1990 y 1994 constituyeron excepciones de esa dinámica. Ambas experiencias son analizadas a la luz de la experiencia comparada.
The approval of the current president has been a reasonably reliable predictor of the success or defeat of the ruling party in Costa Rica. To verify this, we formed a sample that covered the presidential elections held between 1982 and 2022. The results suggest that the Costa Rican voter tends to reward or punish the official presidential candidate depending on the perception they have of the performance of the current president. The 1990 and 1994 elections were exceptions to this dynamic. Both experiences are analyzed in the light of comparative experience.
