La política económica y la incertidumbre: notas para un programa de investigación

• José Antonio Álvarez ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad de La Laguna

     Universidad de La Laguna

     San Cristóbal de La Laguna, España

     
• Localización: Revista Atlántida: Revista Canaria de Ciencias Sociales, ISSN 2171-4924, Nº. 14, 2023, págs. 61-83
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.25145/j.atlantid.2023.14.04
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Economic Policy and uncertainty: notes for a research programme
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    En este trabajo vamos a tratar la convivencia de la política económica con la incertidumbre.

    En la primera parte se precisa el concepto de incertidumbre y sus principales causas, destacando tres: falta de información, ignorancia y existencia de procesos estocásticos. En el resto del texto consideramos la política económica en sus fases de diseño, decisión e implementación, fases que son usuarias de información y conocimientos. Por tanto, se propone una política económica en la que destaque la infraestructura de producción de conocimientos y aprendizaje (reducir la falta de información y la ignorancia) para aumentar el rigor y contribuir a reducir la incertidumbre.

  • English

    In this paper we are going to deal with the coexistence of Economic Policy with uncertainty.

    In the first part, the concept of uncertainty and its main causes are specified, highlighting three: lack of information, ignorance and the existence of stochastic processes. In the rest of the text we consider the Economic Policy in its phases of design, decision and implementation, phases that are users of information and knowledge. Therefore, an Economic Policy is proposed that highlights the infrastructure for the production of knowledge and learning (reduce the lack of information and ignorance) to increase rigor and contribute to reducing uncertainty.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Acemoglu, D. y Robinson, J.A. (2013). Economics versus Politics: Pitfalls of Policy Advice. NBER Working Paper, 18921.
  • Acocella, N. (2022). Economic Policy in the 21ts Century. Cambridge University Press.
  • Akerlof, G.A. (1970). The Market for Lemons: Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism. Quaterly Journal of Economics, 84, 481-500.
  • Akerlof, G.A. y Shiller, R.J. (2019). Animal Spirits. Como influye la psicología humana en la economía. Planeta.
  • Andersson, P. y Almqvist, G. (2022). Carrots, sticks, sermons or nudges? Survey Evidence of the Swedish General Public ś Attitude towards...
  • Baker, S.R., Bloom, N. y Davis, S.J. (2016). Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(4), 1593-1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjw024.
  • Bali, A. y Halpin, D. (2021). Agenda-Setting Instruments: Means and Strategies for the Management of Policy Demands. Policy and Society, 40(3),...
  • Bang, D. y Frith, C.D. (2017). Making better decisions in groups. Royal Sciety Open Science, 4(8). https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.170193.
  • Beckerman, W. (2017). Economics as Applied Ethics. Fact and Value in Economic Policy. Palgrave Macmillan.
  • Bemelmans-Videc, M.L., Rist, R.C. y Vedung, E. (eds.) (2010). Carrots, Sticks and Sermons. Policy Instruments and their Evaluation, (vol....
  • Besley, T. (2007). The New Political Economy. The Economic Journal, 117, 570-587.
  • Blanchard, O., Dell’Ariccia, G. y Mauro, P. (2010). Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy. IMF Staf Position Note, febrero. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2010/spn1003.PDF.
  • Blanchard, O.J. y Summers, L.H. (2017). Rethinking Stabilization Policy: Evolution or Revolution. NBER Working Paper, 24179. https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/...
  • Blinder, A.S. y Morgan, J. (2000). Are two Heads better than one?: An Experimental Analysis of Group vs. Individual Decision making. NBER...
  • Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in Uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153-176. DOI: 10.1257/jep.28.2.153.
  • Boston, J., Bradstock, A. y Eng, D. (2010). Public Policy. Why Ethics Matters? ANU E. Press.
  • Bovens, M. y Hart, P. (2016). Revisiting the study of policy failures. Journal of European Public Policy, 23(5), 653-666. https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2015.1127273.
  • Brañas, P. (2011). Economía Experimental y del Comportamiento. Antoni Bosch.
  • Bundi, P. y Trein, P. (2022). Evaluation use and Learning in Public Policy. Policy Sciences, 55, 283- 309. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-022-09462-6.
  • Cairney, P. (2016). The Politics of Evidence-Based Policy-Making. Macmillan.
  • Caplan, N. (1979). The two Communities Theory and Knowledge Utilization. American Behavioral Scientist, 22(3), 459-470. https://doi.org/10.1177/000276427902200308.
  • Charness, G. y Sutter, M. (2012). Groups Make Better Self-Interested Decisions. Journal of Economic Perspèctives, 26(3), 157-176. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.26.3.157.
  • Chaudhuri, A. (2021). Behavioral Economics and Experiments. Routledge.
  • Chow, G.C. (2001). Econometrics and Economic Policy. Statistica Sinica, 11(3), 631-650. https:// www.jstor.org/stable/24306838.
  • Christensen, J. (2021). Expert Knowledge and Policymaking: A Multidisciplinary Research Agenda. Policy & Politics, 49(3), 455-471. https://doi.org/10.1332/030557320X15898190680037.
  • Christensen, J. (2023). Studying Expert Influence: A Methodological Agenda. West European Politics, 46(3), 600-613. https://doi.org/10.1080/01402382.2022.2086387.
  • Colander, D. y Kupers, R. (2014). Complexity and the Art of Public Policy. Princeton University Press.
  • Demertzis, M., Martins, C. y Viegi, N. (2022). An Analysis of Central Bank Decision-Making. Policy Conribution, 12/22.
  • DeNicola, D.R. (2017). Understanding ignorance. The surpriseng impact of what we don`t know. The MIT Press.
  • Druckman, J.N., Green, D.P., Kuklinski, J.H. y Lupia, A. (2012) (eds.). Cambridge Handbook of Experimental Political Science. Cambridge University...
  • Edler, J., Karaaulova, M. y Barker, K. (2022). Understanding Conceptual Impact of Scientific Knowledge on Policy: The Role of Policymaking....
  • Elman, C., Gerring, J. y Mahoney, J. (eds.) (2020). The Production of Knowledge. Enhancing Progress in Social Science. Cambridge University...
  • Fontaine, Ph. y Leonard, R. (2005). The Experiment in the History of Economics. Routledge.
  • French, R.D. (2018). Is it Time to Give up on Evidence-Based Policy? Four answers. Policy & Politics, 47(1), 151-168. https://doi.org/10.1332/030557318X15333033508220.
  • Friedman, D. y Cassar, A. (2004). Economics Lab. An Intensive course in experimental economics. Routledge.
  • Galbraith, J.K. (1977). The Age of Uncertainty. Houghton Mifflin Co.
  • Ghirelli, C., Gil, M., Pérez, J.J. y Uutasun, A. (2021). Measuring economic and economic policy uncertainty and their macroeconomic effects:...
  • Goolsbee, A. (2018). Public Policy in an AI Economy. NBER Working Paper, 24653. DOI: 3386/ w24653.
  • Greenhalgh, T. y Engebretsen, E. (2022). The Science-Policy relationship in Times of Crisis: A Urgent Call for Pragmatis Turn. Social Science...
  • Grossman, G.M. y Helpman, E. (2001). Special Interest Politics. The MIT Press.
  • Gunn, A. (2017). «Policy Entrepreneurs and Policy Formulation», en Howlett, M. y Mukherjee, I. (eds) (2017), Handbook of Policy Formulation....
  • Hadorn, S., Sager, F., Mavrot, C., Malandrino, A. y Ege, J. (2022). Evicence-Based Policymaking in Times of Acute Crisis: Comparing the Use...
  • Switzerland, and Italy. Polit Vierteljahresschr, 63, 359-382. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11615- 022-00382-x.
  • Hamarat, C., Kwakkel, J.H. y Pruyt, E. (2012). Adaptative Robust Design Under Deep Uncertainty. Technological Forecasting & Social Change....
  • Hansen, S. (2018). Aplicación del Aprendizaje Automático al Análisis Económico y la Formulación de Políticas. Papeles de Economía Española,...
  • Hartmann, P. y Smets, F. (2018). The European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy during Its First 20 Years. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity....
  • Hinrichs-Krapels, S., Bailey, J., Boulding, H., Duffy, B. et al. (2020). Using Policy Labs as a process to bring evidence closer to public...
  • Holsapple, C.W. y Singh, M. (2001). The Knowledge Chain Model: Activities for Competitiveness. Expert Systems with Applications, 20, 77-98.
  • Homes, C. (2018). Behavioral & experimental macroeconomics and policy analysis: a complex system approach. BCE Working Paper, 2201. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/...
  • Howlett, M. (2015). Policy Analitical Capacity: The Supply and Demand for Policy Analysis in Government. Policy and Society, 34(3-4), 173-182....
  • Howlett, M. (2017). The criteria for effective policy design: Character and context in policy instrument choices. Presentado en ICPP. https://www.ippapublicpolicy.org/f...
  • Howlett, M. (2019). The Policy Design Primer. Choosing the Right Tools for the Job. Routledge.
  • Howlett, M. y Ramesh, M. (2015). Understanding the persistence of policy failures: The role of politics, governance and uncertainty. Public...
  • Howlett, M. y Mukherjee, I. (2018). Routledge Handbook of Policy Design. Routledge.
  • Hudson, B., Hunter, D. y Peckham, S. (2019). Policy Failure and the Policy-Implementation gap: Can Policy Support Programs Help? Policy Design...
  • Hughes Hallet, A.J. (1989). Econometrics and the theory of economic policy: the Tinbergen-Theil contribution 40 years on. Oxford Economic...
  • Hynes, W., Lees, M. y Muller, J.M. (2020). Systematic Thinking for Policy Making. The Potencial of Systems Analysis for Addressing Global...
  • Iphofen, R. y O’Mathúa, D. (eds.) (2022). Ethical Evidence and Policymaking. Bristol University Press.
  • Jordan, A.J. y Turnpenny, J.R. (eds.) (2015). The tools of Policy Formulation: Actors, Capacities, Venues and Effects. New Horizons in Public...
  • Kates, S. (ed.) (2010). Macroeconomic Theory and its Fails. Edward Elgar.
  • Kerr, N.L. y Tindale, R.S. (2004). Group performance and Decision Making. Annual Review of Psychology, 55, 623-655. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.psych.55.090902.142009.
  • Kirkpatrick, S.A., Davis, D.F. y Robertson, R.D. (1976). The Process of Political Decision-making in Groups. American Behavioral Scientist,...
  • Klein, L.R. (1947). The use of Econometric Models as a Guide to Economic Policy. Econometrica, 15, 111-151. https://doi.org/10.2307/1907067b.
  • Klump, R. y Wörsdörfer, M. (2015). Paternalistic Economic Policies: Foundations, Implications and Critical Evaluations. ORDO, 66(1), 27-60...
  • Knight, F.H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit. Houghton Mifflin Co.
  • Köhn, J. (2017). Uncertainty in Economics. A new Approach. Springer.
  • Kugler, T., Kausel, E.E. y Kocher, M.G. (2012). Are groups more rational than individuals? A review of interactive decision making in groups....
  • Lane, J.E. (2013). The Principal-Agent Approach to Politics: Policy Implementation and Public Policy-Making. Open Journal of Political Science,...
  • Lee, C.C. y Yang, J. (2000). Knowledge Value Chain. Journal of Management Development, 19(9), 783-793.
  • Lester, J.P. y Goggin, M.L. (1998). Back to the Future: The Rediscovery of Implementation Studies. Policy Currents, 8(3), 1-9.
  • Lever, A. y Poama, A. (eds.) (2019). The Routledge Handbook of Ethics and Public Policy. Routledge.
  • Lewis, J.M. (2021). The limits of policy labs: characteristics, opportunities and constrains. Policy Design and Practice, 4(2), 242-251. https://doi.org/10.1080/25741292.2020.1859077.
  • Li, Y., Chen, J. y Feng, L. (2013). Dealing with Uncertainty: A Survey of Theories and Practice. IEEE Transactions on Knowledge and Dat Engineering,...
  • Lindley, D.V. (2006). Understanding Uncertainty. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Lindley, D.V. (2008). Incertidumbre. Einstein, Heisenberg, Bohr y la lucha por la esencia de la ciencia. Ariel.
  • Lipshitz, R. y Strauss, O. (1997). Coping with uncertainty: A Naturalistic Decision Making Analysis. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision...
  • Lucas, R.E. (1972). Expectations and the Neutrality of Money. Journal of Economic Theory, 4(2), 103-124.
  • McCarty, N. y Meirowitz, A. (2007). Political game theory: an introduction. Cambridge University Press.
  • McConnell, A. (2015). What is policy failure? A primer to help navigate the maze. Public Policy and Administration, 30(3-4), 221-242. https://doi.org/10.1177/0952076714565416.
  • McGann, J. (2011). The Global Go-To Think Tanks 2010. Foreign Policy Research Institute.
  • Merlo, A. (2019). Political Economy and Policy Analysis. Routledge.
  • Moutot, P., Jung, A. y Mongelli, F.P. (2008). Monetary Policy Preparations and Decision-Making. Selected Issues. BCE Occasional Paper, 79.
  • Mukand, S. y Rodrik, D. (2018). The Political Economy of Ideas: On ideas versus Interesest in Policymaking. NBER Working Paper, 24467. DOI:...
  • Mukherjee, N., Dicks, L.V. et al. (2016). Comparing Groups versus Individual in Decisión Making. A Systematic Review Protocol. Environmental...
  • Mukherjee, N., Coban, M.K. y Bali, A.S. (2021). Policy capacities and effective policy design: a review. Policy Sciences, 54, 243-268. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11077-021-09420-8.
  • Mueller, B. (2020). Why public policies fail: Policymaking under complexity: EconomíA, 21(2), 311-323. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2019.11.002.
  • Müller-Kademann, C. (2019). Uncertainty in Economics. A paradigmatic Perspective. Routledge.
  • Muth, J.F. (1961). Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements. Econometrica, 29, 315-335. https://doi.org/10.2307/1909635.
  • Newman, J., Cherney, A. y Head, B.W. (2016). Do Policy Makers use Academic Research? Reexamining the «Two Communities» Theory of Research...
  • Normann, H.T. y Ricciuti, R. (2009). Laboratory experiments for economic policy making. Journal of Economic Survey, 23(3), 407-432. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-6419.2008.00567.x.
  • OCDE (2017a). Behavioral Insights and Public Policy. OCDE.
  • OCDE (2017b). Debate the Issues: Complexity and Policy Making. OCDE Insights, OCDE Publising.
  • Olejniczak, K., Borkowska-Waszak, S., Domaradzka-Widla, A. y Park, Y. (2019). Policy labs: the nex frontier of policy design and evaluation?...
  • Peet, E., Vegetabile, B.G., Cefalu, M., Pane, J. y Damberg, C.L. (2022). Machine learning in Public Policy. Rand Corporation, Perspective....
  • Peil, J. y Van Staveren, I. (eds.) (2009). Handbook of Economics and Ethics. E. Elgar.
  • Perry, B. y Uuk, R. (2019). AI Governance and the Policymaking Process: Key Considerations for Reducing AI Risk. Big Data Cogn. Comput., 3(2)....
  • Persson, T. y Tabellini, G. (2000). Political Economics: Explaining Economic Policy. The MIT Press.
  • Persson, T. y Tabellini, G. (2003). The Economic Effects of Constitutions. The MIT Press.
  • Persson, T y Tabellini, G. (2004). Constitutions and Economic Policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(1), 75-98. https://doi:10.1257/089533004773563449.
  • Rich, A., McGann, J., Weaver, K., Garnett, M., Thunert; M., Speth, R., Traub_Merz, R. y Ye, Y. (2011). Think Tanks in Policy Making. Do they...
  • Riedl, A. (2009). Behavioral and Experimental Economics can Inform Public Policy: Some Thoughts. CESifo Working Paper núm. 2902. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1536428.
  • Riker, W.H. (1962). The Theory of Political Coalitions. Yale University Press.
  • Rizzo, M.J. y Whitman, G. (2020). Escaping Paternalism. Rationality, Behavioral Economics, and Public Policy. Cambridge University Press.
  • Rodrik, D. (2014). When Ideas Trump Interests: Preferences, Worldviews, and Policy Innovations. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(1), 189-208....
  • Sabatier, P.A. (1988). An Advocacy Coalition Framework of Policy Change and the Role of Policy-Oriented Learning. Policy Sciences, 21(3-4),...
  • Sabatier, P.A. y Weible, C.M. (2010). El Marco de las Coaliciones Promotoras, en Sabatier (ed.), ibidem.
  • Saetren, H. (2014). Implememnting the third Generation Research Paradigm in Policy Implementation Research: An Empirical Assessment. Public...
  • Sager, F. y Gofen, A. (2022). The polity of implementation. Organizational and institutional arrangements in policy implementation. Governance,...
  • Sen, A. (1988). On Ethics and Economics. Blackwell Pub.
  • Shafir, E. (ed.) (2013). The Behavioral Foundations of Public Policy. Princeton University Press.
  • Simon, H.A. (1982). Models of bounded rationality. MIT Press.
  • Sousa, J., Ciriolo, E., Almeida, S.R. y Troussard, X. (2016). Behavioral Insights Applied to Policy. European Report 2016, EUR 27726 RN.
  • Spence, M. (1973). Job market signalling. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87, 355-374.
  • Stiglitz, J.E. (2014). Reconstructing Macroeconomic Theory to Manage Economic Policy. NBER Working Paper, 20517.
  • Stiglitz, J. (1975). The Theory of Screening. American Economic Review, 65 (3), 283-300.
  • Strydom, W.F., Funke, N., Nienaber, S., Nortje, K. y Steyn, M. (2010). Evidence-based policymaking: A review. South African Journal of Science,...
  • Sustein, C.R. (2013). The Storrs Lectures: Behavioral Economics and Paternalism. The Yale Law Journal, 122(7), 1826-1899.
  • Sunstein, C.R. (2017). Human Agency and Behavioral Economics. Palgrave, Macmillan.
  • Sunstein, C.R, (2020). Behavioral Science and Public Policy. Cambridge University Press.
  • Swanson, D. y Bhadwal, S.(ed.) (2009). Creating Adaptative Policies. A Guide for Policy-Making in an Uncertain World. Delhi, SAGE Pub.
  • Swinkels, M. (2020). How Ideas Matter in Public Policy: a Review of Concepts, Mechanisms, and Methods. International Review of Public Policy,...
  • Tannert, C., Elvers, H_D. y Jandrig, B. (2007). The ethics of uncertainty. In the light of posible dangers, research become a moral duty....
  • Terzi, A., Singh, A. y Sherwood, M. (2022). Industrial Policy for the 21st Century. Lessons from the Past. European Commission, Discussion...
  • Thaler, R.H. (1992). The Winner’s Curse. Paradoxes and Anomalies of Economic Life. The Free Press.
  • Thaler, R.H. y Sunstein, C.R. (2009). Un pequeño empujón. Tauros.
  • Tinbergen, J. (1956). Economic Policy. Principles and Design. North-Holland.
  • Topp, L., Mair, D., Smille, L. y Cairney, P. (2018). Knowledge Management for the Policy Impact: the case of the European Commission’s Joint...
  • Visco, I. (2014). Lawrence R. Klein: Macroeconomics, Econometrics and Economic Policy. Journal of Policy Modelling, 36, 605-628. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2014.03.003.
  • Volker, P. (2014). Vision without Execution is Hallucination. Public Administration Review, 74(4), 439-441. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24029423.
  • Walker, W.E. y Marchau, V.A.W.J. (2003). Dealing with Uncertainty in Policy Analysis and Policymaking. Integreted Assessment, 4(1), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1076/iaij.4.1.1.16462.
  • Walker, W.E., Marchau, V.A.W.J. y Swanson, D. (2010). Addressing Deep Uncertainty using Adaptive Policies: Introduction. Technological Forecast...
  • Weingast, B.R. y Wittman, D.A. (2006). The Oxford Handbook of Political Economy. Oxford University Press.
  • Weimer, D.L. y Vining, A.R. (2011). Policy Analysis. Pearson.
  • Willems, E. (2020). Politized policy acces: The effect of politicization on interest group access to advisory councils. Public Administration,...
  • Winter, S.C. (2006). Implementation, en Peters y Pierre, J. (eds.), Handbook of Public Policy. SAGE Pub. Ltd.
  • Wu, X., Ramesh, M. y Howlett, M. (2015). Policy Capacity: A Conceptual Framework for Understanding Policy Competences and Capabilities. Policy...
  • Zahariadis, N. (ed.) (2016). Handbook of Public Policy Agenda Setting. Edward Elgar.
  • Zittoun, P. (2014). The Political Process of Policymaking. A Pragmatic Approach to Public Policy. Palgrave Macmillan.