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Mónica Salomón, Feliciano De Sá Guimarães
En el artículo se hace un balance de la contribución de la academia brasileña a la subdisciplina de Análisis de Política Exterior (Foreign Policy Analysis). Un análisis de contenido de la producción brasileña en APE de los últimos veinte años publicada en los principales vehículos brasileños y anglosajones del área nos permite identificar las principales tendencias de esa contribución. Constatamos que, igual que ocurre en la subdisciplina global de APE, la academia brasileña se ha decantado por la teorización de medio alcance (en oposición a aquella vinculada a los grandes paradigmas de las Relaciones Internacionales), o sea aquella centrada en la elaboración de modelos de análisis dirigidos a problemas empíricos bien delimitados y susceptibles de ser verificados. Argumentamos que es una tendencia positiva que, entre otras cosas, contribuye a minimizar los sesgos ideológicos y a aumentar la relevancia internacional de la producción académica brasileña. Además de presentar brevemente la teorización de medio alcance típica del desarrollo de APE (y que no pocos autores del área defienden como idónea) y de detallar los factores que explican el notable crecimiento de la producción brasileña sobre política exterior en las últimas dos décadas, identificamos las principales tendencias de la subárea en la producción autóctona, empezando por el significativo aumento en el uso de conceptos y modelos de APE, especialmente los modelos sobre actores y procesos de toma de decisiones y los centrados en el papel de las ideas (incluyendo normas e identidades) en la política exterior. Detectamos asimismo que el estudio de la opinión pública en política exterior y las investigaciones que conectan el APE al Análisis de Políticas Públicas presentan un buen potencial de desarrollo y describimos algunos de los recientes esfuerzos por construir modelos propios y replicables en otros contextos. Esos ejemplos recientes de teorización autóctona de medio alcance con buen potencial de ser usados en estudios comparativos nos permiten entrever un cambio en la división internacional del trabajo del mercado académico y, específicamente, el papel de la academia brasileña en ese mercado.
The article reviews the Brazilian academic contribution to the sub-discipline of Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) over the last twenty years published in the main Brazilian and Anglo-Saxon journals. We argue that the Brazilian academic production in FPA should continue focusing on producing middle-range theories. We note that, more recently, as occurs in the global sub-discipline of FPA, the Brazilian academy has opted for medium-range theorization (as opposed to that linked to the great paradigms of International Relations), that is, focused on the elaboration of models aimed at well-defined empirical problems that can be more easily verified. Our review shows a harmony between the Brazilian sub-discipline of FPA and the Anglo-Saxon core. The Brazilian academic community very often uses FPA instruments rather than relying upon IR’s great theoretical paradigms (Realism, Liberalism, Marxism).In the last two decades (more in the last one than in the previous one) the efforts to use and also, to a lesser extent, propose medium-range theories clearly framed FPA research in and on Brazil. In fact, even the previous production, not so committed to the development of theoretical models, had accumulated theorizing comparable to eclectic medium-range theorizing. This article briefly presents the typical middle-range theorization (which not a few authors in the area defend as the ideal one), then it exposes the factors that explain the remarkable growth of Brazilian production on foreign policy in the last two decades, and lastly, it points out the main trends in the local production in the sub-area. In addition to gauging the growth in the use of FPA models and concepts and verifying the preference for medium-range theorizing in Brazil, we identify the research areas that present a greater density: the use of models on actors and decision-making processes and those focused on the role of ideas (including norms and identities) in foreign policy.We also detect that the study of public opinion in foreign policy on the one hand and the research that connects the FPA to Public Policy Analysis on the other have good development potential. We point out some recent efforts by Brazilian scholars to build original models replicable in other contexts. The first is the set of articles published in 2017 in International Affairs around the concept of the “graduation dilemma” (Milani, Pinheiro and Lima, 2017; Milani, da Conceição and M’Bunde, 2017; Harig and Kenkel, 2017). The authors build the concept by taking into account (1) the scope of the international ambition of decision-makers, the material capacities of the country, and the permissiveness of the system; (2) the possible contradictions related to the expectations of the international and domestic public in relation to the country’s identity; (3) the uncertainty associated with unforeseen results and perceptions of third countries in relation to political decisions. We consider that the authors have constructed a typical middle-range theory, in which an empirical problem (the dilemma) guides the construction of a more general concept and analysis model. The second example is the article published in Latin American Politics and Society by Feliciano Guimarães and Maria Herminia Tavares de Almeida (2017), in which the authors seek to refine the discussions on the controversial concept of “middle power” by coining that of entrepreneurial powers, a more specific sub-concept referred to the performance of this category of countries in international crises. Like the previous example, the model has the potential to be replicated beyond the case of Brazil. Our third example is the article published in Foreign Policy Analysis (2022) resulting from the collaboration of three Brazilian researchers (Pedro Feliu Ribeiro, Dawisson Belem Lopes and Guilherme Casarões with the Argentine researcher based in the United Kingdom Luis Schenoni (Schenoni, Ribeiro, Belém Lopes and Casarões, 2022). Starting from the paradigmatic case of Brazil, the authors model the situation they call “overstretch”, described as one in which the costs of a foreign policy strategy far exceed the means available to implement it, and the eventual benefits of it.Thus, the recent use of middle-range theorizing in Brazil is, in our opinion, a positive trend, because it favors the replication of models in other regional environments beyond Latin America and the internationalization of national production. Our positive view of the Brazilian trend toward middle-range theorizing is based on three reasons. First, eclectic theorization focused on specific problems largely avoids the ideological biases of the great theoretical narratives of IR (which would anyhow be difficult for the North to accept coming from the South). Second, as the middle-range models are potentially replicable (which does not mean universal) in other regional environments beyond Latin America, the accumulation of knowledge is facilitated, especially in Global South contexts where research fragmentation frequently takes place. Third, middle-range theorizing allows taking advantage of concepts and arguments (on autonomy/dependence, relations with the US and other powers, among others) already present in traditional discussions (academic and pre-academic) on Brazilian foreign policy.In sum, our review of the local production allowed us to identify the main trends in its evolution in recent decades: a significant increase in analyzes that use concepts and models from the academic sub-discipline of FPA; preference, as in FPA, for middle-range theorizing as opposed to that based on the great paradigms of International Relations; greater concentration of research on models on actors and their decision-making process; respectable production on the role of ideas (including norms and identities) in foreign policy; incipient research, but with growth potential, on public opinion and research that connects FPA to public policy analysis. Those trends and the examples of indigenous middle-range theorizing with good potential for use in comparative studies allow us to glimpse a change in the international division of labor in the academic market and, specifically, the role of the Brazilian academy in that market. Many local scholars seem to have realized that, to become an international reference for high-quality research in FPA, they need to look beyond Brazil and Latin America
