Trade Openness And Economic Growth In Mozambique

• Lawrence MASHIMBYE ^[1] ; Ashenafi Beyene FANTA ^[1]
  1. [1] University Cape Town, South Africa
• Localización: Estudios Economicos Regionales y Sectoriales : EERS: Regional and sectoral economic studies : RSES, ISSN 1578-4460, Vol. 21, Nº. 2, 2021, págs. 37-52
• Idioma: inglés
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen

  • Mozambique pursued open trade policy from 1986 and recorded sustained economic growth for over two decades. However, whether or not trade openness contributed to the country’s economic development remains unclear, calling for an empirical examination.

    To this effect, we examined short-run and long-run relationship between trade openness and economic growth in Mozambique between 1981 and 2017 using Vector Error Correction Model and Granger causality, accounting for government consumption and exchange rate. We report short-run and long-run causality from economic growth to trade openness, not vice versa. We conclude that trade openness is not the reason behind economic growth in Mozambique.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Alexiou, C. (2009) “Government spending and economic growth: Econometric evidence from the South Eastern Europe”, Journal of Economic and...
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2008) “Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Is Growth Export-led or Import-led?,” Applied Economics, 40, 161-173.
  • Bentour, E.M. (2015) A ranking of VAR and structural models in forecasting. [online] MPRA Paper No. 61502. https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/61502/1/MPRA_paper_61502.pdf,...
  • Brooks, C. (2014). Introductory econometrics for finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
  • Chaudhry, I.S., Malik, A., and Faridi, M.Z. (2010) “Exploring the causality relationship between trade liberalization, human capital and economic...
  • Dao, A.T. (2014) “Trade openness and economic growth,” Mark A. Israel '91 Endowed Summer Research Fund in Economics, 2.
  • Dollar, D. (1992) “Outward-oriented developing economies really do grow more rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-85,” Economic Development...
  • Dollar, D., and Kraay, A. (2004) “Trade, growth and poverty,” The Economic Journal, 114 (493), 1-184.
  • Dritsakis, N., and Stamatiou, P. (2016) “Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis for the Newest EU...
  • Edwards, S.(1992) “Trade orientation, distortions, and growth in developing countries,” Journal of Development Economics, 39(1), 31-57.
  • Gantman, E.R., and Dabós, M.P. (2018) “Does trade openness influence the real effective exchange rate? New evidence from panel time-series,”...
  • Gonzalo, J. (1994) “Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships,” Journal of econometrics, 60(1), 203-233.
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) “Investigating causal relations by econometrics models and cross-spectral methods” Econometrica, 37(3), 424-438.
  • Gries, T., and Redlin, M. (2012) Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis.[online] Working Paper Series, No. 2011-06,...
  • International Economics, Sydney. https://ideas.repec.org/p/pdn/ciepap/52.html (accessed 06 June 2019).
  • Grossman, G. M., and Helpman, E. (1991) “Trade, knowledge spillovers, and growth,” European Economic Review, 35(2-3), 517-526.
  • Guisan, M. (2017). Manufacturing and development in countries and areas of Europe and Eurasia, 2000-2010. Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies,...
  • Hendry, D. F., and Juselius, K. (2001) “Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part II,” Energy Journal, 22(1), 75.
  • Hoffman, D. L., and Rasche, R. H. (1996) ‘Assessing forecast performance in a cointegrated system’, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(5),...
  • Hye, Q.M.A., and Lau, W. (2014) “Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from India,” Journal of Business Economics and Management,...
  • Idris, J., Yusop, Z., and Habibullah, M.S. (2016) ‘Trade openness and economic growth: A causality test in a panel perspective’, International...
  • Karras, G., (2003) ‘Trade openness and economic growth can we estimate the precise effect?’ Applied Econometrics and International Development,...
  • Keho, Y., and Wang M.G. (2017) ‘The impact of trade openness on economic growth: The case of Cote d’Ivoire’, Cogent Economics & Finance,...
  • Krugman, P.R., (1981) ‘Intraindustry specialization and the gains from trade’, Journal of political economy, 89(5), 959-973.
  • Levine, R., and Renelt, D. (1992) ‘A sensitivity analysis of cross-country growth regressions’, The American Economic Review, 82(4), 942-963.
  • Lütkepohl, H. (2010). Macroeconometrics and Time Series Analysis. The New Palgrave Economics Collection. Palgrave Macmillan, London.
  • Malefane, M.R., and Odhiambo, N.M. (2018) Trade openness and economic growth: empirical evidence from Lesotho. [online] Working Paper, No....
  • Menyah, K., Nazlioglu, S., and Wolde-Rufael, Y. (2014) ‘Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New...
  • Moyo, C., and Khobai, H. (2018) Trade openness and economic growth in SADC countries.[online] Working Paper, No. 84254, Munich Personal RePEc...
  • Munich. Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/84254/7/MPRA_paper_84254.pdf (accessed 06 June 2019). OECD.(2011) Trade openness. [online]...
  • en.pdf?expires=1624710431&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=1BCCC2C20BBB74 2BF870A132C6CB64E7 (accessed 15 June 2019).
  • OECD. (2015) Revised trade integration study for Mozambique. https://www.oecd.org/aidfortrade/countryprofiles/dtis/Mozambique-DTIS-2015.pdf (accessed...
  • Romer, P. (1990) ‘Endogenous Technological Change’’, Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), 71-102.
  • Sims, C.A. (1980) ‘Macroeconomics and reality’, Econometrica, 48, 1–48.
  • Tekin, RB. (2012) ‘Development aid, openness to trade and economic growth in Least Developed Countries: bootstrap panel Granger causality...
  • Sy, M., and Tabarraei, H. (2010) Capital inflows and exchange rate in LDCs: The Dutch disease problem revisited. [online] Paris School of...
  • Toye, J., and Toye, R. (2003). The origins and interpretation of the Prebisch-Singer thesis. History of Political Economy, 35(3), 437-67.
  • World Bank. (2018), World Development Indicators.[online]. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator, (accessed 17 October 2019).
  • Vernon, R. (1966) ‘International investment and international trade in the product cycle’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 80, 190-207.
  • World Trade Organization. (2009) Structural problems are inhibiting development. Trade policy review: Mozambique. [online]
  • https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp309_e.htm (accessed 15 June 2019).