Percepciones económicas retrospectivas y voto por el partido en el poder, 1994-2012

• Beltrán, Ulises ^[1]
  1. [1] División de Estudios Políticos del CIDE
• Localización: Política y gobierno, ISSN 1405-1060, ISSN-e 1685-2037, Vol. 22, Nº. 1, 2015, págs. 45-85
• Idioma: español
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Retrospective Economic Perceptions and Vote for the Incumbent, 1994-2012
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 3 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    Las preferencias electorales cambiaron radicalmente entre 1994 y 2012. Con base en encuestas aplicadas a votantes a la salida de las casillas en que emitieron su voto, este artículo analiza la relación entre la percepción de cambio en la situación de la economía y la preferencia por el partido en el poder en el periodo. El voto económico retrospectivo es un rasgo del comportamiento electoral ampliamente difundido, de una importancia limitada que, salvo en momentos de crisis, varía relativamente poco en contextos distintos y que es consistente con las actitudes de los votantes ante el riesgo. El carácter limitado del efecto de las percepciones económicas en el voto se explica porque la identidad partidista de los votantes media esta relación.

  • English

    Electoral preferences radically changed between 1994 and 2012. Based on surveys taken from voters as they left the polling place, this article analyzes the relationship between the voter’s perception of change in the economic situation and preference for the incumbent party in this period. Economic retrospective vote is one feature of voter’s behavior widely present, of a small magnitude and almost constant in all elections, except in moments of big economic changes. The effect of economic perceptions on the vote for the incumbent party is of a limited magnitude, because voter’s party identification mediates this relationship between perceptions and vote.

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