Acceso usuarios
Sergio Lagunas Puls, Genaro Aguilar Gutiérrez, Oscar Miguel Reyes Hernández
Ante la pandemia por Covid-19 se investiga y mide la naturaleza de la relación de los contagios en México con hábitos persistentes (memoria de contagio), mediante el exponente de Hurst (H), analizando 3,727 reportes diarios (311,483 casos positivos a sars-CoV-2), agrupados por estados del país. Un índice H elevado indicará persistencia de la pandemia por hábitos arraigados y un exponente Hurst H menor indicará aleatoriedad de los contagios, derivado del Animal Spirits de Keynes: conducta irracional de salir de la casa y no seguir las recomendaciones de cuidados de la salud. Los resultados muestran que en Jalisco y Querétaro los contagios derivan de hábitos persistentes (alto índice de Hurts); mientras que Quintana Roo y Baja California Sur tienen mayor Animal Spirits (aleatoriedad). Se concluye la necesidad de políticas diferenciadas, en función del Animal Spirits; la metodología aplicada contribuye a identificar el momento adecuado para tomar decisiones contra la pandemia
To face the Covid-19 pandemic, a research is directed to measure the nature of the relationship of the spread of Covid-19 in Mexico with the persistent habits that lead to its spread (spread memory), analyzing 3,727 daily reports which equal to 311,483 positive cases of sars-CoV-2, grouping them by federative entities. A high H level should indicate persistence of the pandemic due to ingrained habits, and a smaller H exponent should indicate randomness of the spread, derivated from people’s Animal Spirits from Keynes: an irrational behavior of unnecessarily avoiding the healthcare recommendations. The results show that Jalisco and Querétaro are the entities which show a higher spread caused by persistent habits (higher H level), meanwhile Quintana Roo and Baja California Sur show a higher level of Animal Spirits (randomness). The necessity for various different healthcare politics based on each entities necessities and Animal Spirits is shown as a conclusion; and the applied methodology allows to identify the most suitable moment to take decisions to face the pandemic
