Estudio de opiniones sobre el desempeño económico: evidencia para los países de América Latina y el Caribe

• Martín Llada ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad de Buenos Aires

     Universidad de Buenos Aires

     Argentina

     
• Localización: Estudios Económicos: Argentina, ISSN 0425-368X, ISSN-e 2525-1295, Vol. 38, Nº. 76, 2021, págs. 69-94
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.52292/j.estudecon.2021.2357
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen

  • Este trabajo estudia asociaciones entre opiniones sobre desempeño económico y flujos de información económica. Para 18 países de América Latina y el Caribe en el período 1995-2016, se encuentra 1) una asociación positiva entre un indicador de expectativas y el indicador de evaluaciones económicas esperadas, 2) controlando por las expectativas reportadas en el período t, información disponible en t-1 — factible de ser incorporada para formular expectativas— contribuye a explicar la evolución de las evaluación esperadas, 3) se evidencia instancias de sub y sobre-reacción y 4) no se evidencia heterogeneidad en las opiniones de individuos con diferentes características sociodemográficas e inclinación política. Los resultados 1, 2 y 3 son inconsistentes con los postulados de los modelos FIRE (full-information rational expectation).

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Andrade, P. & Le Bihan, H. (2013). Inattentive professional forecasters. Journal of Monetary Economics, 60(8), 967-982.
  • Aromí, J. D. (2017). Conventional Views and Asset Prices: What to Expect after Times of Extreme Opinions? Journal of Applied Economics, 20(1),...
  • Aromí, J. D. (2018). GDP growth forecasts and information flows: Is there evidence of overreactions? International Finance, 21 (2), 122-139.
  • Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1998). A model of investor sentiment. Journal of financial economics, 49(3), 307-343.
  • BID (2008). ¿Es la gente la que elige? La importancia de las opiniones en el proceso de formulación de políticas. En E. Lora (coord.) Calidad...
  • Bischi, G. I., Gallegati, M., Gardini, L., Leombruni, R., & Palestrini, A. (2006). Herd behavior and nonfundamental asset price fluctuations...
  • Blanchard, O., & Giavazzi, F. (2002). Current account deficits in the euro area: the end of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle?. Brookings papers...
  • Blinder, A. & Krueger, A. (2004). What Does the Public Know about Economic Policy, and How Does It Know It? National Bureau of Economic...
  • Brown, S. & Taylor, K. (2006). Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis. Fiscal Studies, 27(3), 313-338.
  • Calvo, G. A. (1998). Çapital ows and capital market crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops. Journal of Applied Economics, 1(1), 35-54.
  • Cameron, A. C., Gelbach, J. B., & Miller, D. L. (2008). Bootstrap-based improvements for inference with clustered errors. The Review of...
  • Carroll, C. (2003a). Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 269-298.
  • Carroll, C. (2003b). The Epidemiology of Macroeconomic Expectations. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 118(1), 269-298.
  • Cavallo, A., Cruces, G. & Perez-Tuglia, R. (2016). Learning from Potentially Biased Statistics. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,...
  • Cavallo, A., Cruces, G. & Perez-Tuglia, R. (2017). Inflation Expectations, Learning, and Supermarket Prices: Evidence from Survey Experiments....
  • Coibion, O. & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2015). Information rigidity and the expectations formation process: A simple framework and new facts....
  • Cruces, G, Perez-Truglia, R. & Tetaz, M. (2013). Biased perceptions of income distribution and preferences for redistribution: Evidence...
  • Das, S., Kuhnen, C. & Nagel, S. (2017). Socioeconomic status and macroeconomic expectations. National Bureau of Economic Research, (NBER...
  • De Vries, C. E., Hobolt, S. B., & Tilley, J. (2018). Facing up to the facts: What causes economic perceptions? Electoral Studies, 51,...
  • Dominitz, J. & Manski, C. (2004). How Should We Measure Consumer Confidence. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18(2), 51-66.
  • Edwards, S. (2004). Thirty Years of Current Account Imbalances, Current Account Reversals, and Sudden Stops. IMF Staff Papers, 51(s1), 1-49.
  • Garcia, D. (2013). Sentiment during recessions. The Journal of Finance, 68(3), 1267-1300.
  • Gennaioli, N., Ma, Y., & Shleifer, A. (2015). Expectatios and Investment. (NBER Working Paper No. 21260). Cambridge, MA: National Bureau...
  • Golub B. & Jackson, O. M. (2010). Naïve Learning in Social Networks and the Wisdom of Crowds, American Economic Journal: Microeconomics,...
  • Heymann, D. (1994). Sobre la interpretación de la cuenta corriente. Economía Mexicana. Nueva Época, 3(1), 31-59.
  • Huberman, G., Konitzer, T., Krupenkin, M., Rothschild, D. & Hill, S. (2018). Economic Expectations, Voting, and Economic Decisions around...
  • Lahiri, K. & Zhao, Y. (2015). Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method. International...
  • Lamla, Michael J. & Sarah M. Lein. (2008). The Role of Media for Consumers’ Inflation Expectation Formation. (KOF Working Paper No. 201)....
  • Lanzilotta Mernies, B. (2015). Expectativas empresariales: consecuencias en el crecimiento en Uruguay. Cuadernos de Economía, 34(65), 423-442.
  • Leduc, S. & Sill, K. (2010). Expectations and economic fluctuations: and analysis using survey data. (Working Paper No. 10-6). Philadelphia:...
  • Malmendier, U. & Nagel, S. (2013). Learning from Ination Experiences. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 131(1), 53-87.
  • Mankiw, N. & R. Reis (2002). Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve. The Quarterly...
  • Mankiw, N., Reis, R. & Wolfers, J. (2003). Disagreement about Inflation Expectations. (NBER Working Paper No. 9796). Recuperado de https://www.nber.org/papers/w9796
  • Obstfeld, M., & Rogoff, K. (2007). The unsustainable US current account position revisited. In G7 current account imbalances: Sustainability...
  • Reinhart, C. M. & Reinhart, V. R. (2008). Capital flow bonanzas: an encompassing view of the past and present. (NBER Working Paper No.14321)....
  • Sachs, J. (1981). The Current Account and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the 1970s. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1(1), 201-268.
  • Sims, C. (2003). Implications of rational inattention. Journal of Monetary Economics, 50(3), 665-690.
  • Sims, C. (2010). Rational inattention and monetary economics (Cap. 4, pp.155-181). In B. M. Friedman, & F. H. Hahn (Eds.) Handbook of...
  • Souleles, S. Nicholas (2004). Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment...
  • Tetlock, Paul, (2007). “Giving content to investor sentiment: The role of media in the stock market”, Journal of Finance, 1139-68.
  • Tversky, A. y Kahneman, D (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-31.
  • Woodford, M. (2003). Imperfect common knowledge and the effects of monetary policy. En P. Aghion, R. Frydman, J. Stiglitz, & M. Woodford,...