Acceso usuarios
Jonathan Torres Téllez, Alberto Montero Soler
Este artigo toma o caso de Portugal durante o período 2003-2017 para investigar o efecto dun shock negativo na taxa de desemprego sobre a formación de novos fogares e o tempo durante o que esta se ve afectada polo empeoramento das condicións económicas xerais. Para iso, estimouse un Modelo de Vectores Autorregresivos no que se incorporan diversas variables endóxenas e exóxenas que, segundo a literatura, inciden sobre a formación de fogares. Os resultados demostran que a taxa de desemprego é a variable que en maior medida explica a creación de novos fogares, reforzando a relación entre a situación económica e outras variables de natureza social, como a emancipación persoal. Ademais, o impacto dun shock permanente na taxa de desemprego prolóngase durante os dous anos seguintes sobre a formación de novos fogares, momento no que esta volve aos seus niveis iniciais.
This paper deals with the case of Portugal from 2003 to 2017 and investigates the effect of a negative impact of its unemployment rate on the creation of new homes, together with the time that their creation is affected by the worsening of general economic conditions. To this end, this study uses a vector autoregressive model (VAR) in which many endogenous and exogenous variables have been included that, according to the literature reviewed, will have a direct impact on creating new homes. The results show that the unemployment rate is the variable which more effectively explains the creation of new households, strengthening the relationship between the economic situation and other social variables, such as personal emancipation. In addition, the impact of such a perpetual shock on the unemployment rate continues to influence the building of new homes throughout the two following years, when the situation returns to its initial levels.
