Resumen de Recent legislative measures to reduce overcrowding of prisons in Italy: a preliminary assessment of their economic impact

Giuseppe Di Vita

• This paper analyses the effects of two recent reforms introduced in Italy in 2010 and 2011 in an attempt to reduce prison overcrowding. The first, introduced by the law no. 199 of 2010 on house arrest for prisoners with final conviction. The second, passed by the decree law no. 211 of 2011 on house arrest for criminals arrested awaiting trial. The results of econometric analysis prove that these reforms have achieved the objective to reduce the overcrowding of prisons in the short run, but in the long run they contribute to exacerbating the problem. A strong link was found between the several kinds of crime and the total number of prisoners. The two reforms seems to be positively correlated with property crimes (a pickpocketing and home thefts), but not with violent crimes. Finally, the impact of the changes introduced in the condition to be eligible to access at house arrest, has a negative impact on welfare.