Acceso usuarios
Mohammad Rezaie Narimisa, Manouchehr Rezaie Narimisa
The increase in global temperatures will have profound effects on climatic phenomena and, in the first instance, they will have the highest rainfall levels throughout the world. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to predict the country's meteorological parameters in conditions of climate change and compare these parameters with the current conditions. For this purpose, the UKMO general circulation model was used for the years 2025 and 2050. By implementing the general circulation model, the monthly minimum and maximum monthly and monthly forecasts for different stations (which provide a complete coverage of the climatic points of Iran and provide a general indication of the state of the country) and the effects of climate change based on the scenario defined in the model for the parameters Climates were determined. The results of this study show that the average temperature rise in spring for 2025 and 2050 in all studied stations was 3.1 and 9.3, for the months of summer season were 8.8 and 7.7 for fall season 2 / 3 and 0.3 and for winter 0.2 and 4.2 degrees centigrade. In addition, the temperature increase will increase from north to south and from west to east. According to the results, the severity of rainfall reduction in arid and semi-arid regions of the country is more than wet areas and precipitation decrease in autumn and winter is more than spring and summer. According to the predictions, the average fall of autumn rainfall for all stations under study in the years 2025 and 2050 is 8 and 11 percent, respectively, and is relatively low for the months of the summer season. Also, the spatial pattern of precipitation variation in 2025 and 2050 is largely similar to that of temperature variation. On the other hand, the climatic conditions predicted by the general circulation model indicate a longer drought season in 2025 and 2050 at all stations under study, So that the average dry period in 2025 and 2050 will increase to 214 and 223 days, respectively.
