Acceso usuarios
Mohammad Rezaie Narimisa, Manouchehr Rezaie Narimisa
In this study, the climate conditions of Iran in the decades 2000, 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 were modeled using the output of two general models of atmospheric HadCM2 and ECHAM4 and with consideration of 18 IPCC emission scenarios. The MAGICC-SCENGEN model was used for microscopic analysis of low-power data from general circulation models. In this research, the results of two models of HadCM2 and ECHAM4 have been reviewed and compared. Based on this, the results of the HadCM2 model indicate that Iran's precipitation has fallen by 2.5 percent by the 2100s, while for the same period in the ECHAM4 model, our rainfall has increased by 19.8 percent. Regional analysis of the results of the HadCM2 model shows that in the coming decades, the provinces of Mazandaran, Golestan, North Khorasan, North Khorasan Razavi and Semnan, Tehran, and parts of Guilan and Qazvin will increase precipitation, while the ECHAM4 model predicts precipitation reduction has done for these areas.. Also, the HadCM2 model for southeastern regions of our country, including the provinces of Hormozgan, Kerman, Bushehr, southern Fars, and parts of Sistan and Baluchestan, has predicted a decrease in precipitation, but in the ECHAM4 model, these areas will increase in precipitation during the same period. Based on the studies, the results of both models indicate an increase in temperature in all of our provinces in the coming decades. The two models predict the average temperature rise of 3 to 6.3 degrees Celsius for our country by the 2100s, which in these two models the spatial distribution of temperature rise, is consistent.
