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The study of business activity at the regional level is an important scientific and methodological issue, the solution of which has not found a generally accepted approach to the present time. The search for methods aimed at identifying the impact of regional business activity on the development parameters of individual sectors of economy is an equally important issue, both in the scientific-cognitive and in practical terms. This article is devoted to solving these issues. The subject of study is the methods for determining and modeling the business activity of the region and assessing its impact on the development parameters of certain types of economic activity. The authors consider in detail such aspects of a topic as the identification of factors that form the development parameters of business activity of regional economic systems, the analysis of intraregional features that determine the change in the trajectories of business activity indices, expressing the change in the expectations of economic agents in a concentrated form. Particular attention is paid to the issues of economic and mathematical modeling of the impact level of cyclically generated trends in the business activity of the region on the development trajectory of certain types of industrial economy of the region.Within the framework of the constructed system of regional indices, we tested the concept of determining the level of their influence on the development parameters of certain industrial sectors of the economy of regional economic systems of the Volga Federal District.
