Aproximación a curvas de mortalidad a través de una propuesta no paramétrica: el caso del modelo de Heligman y Pollard

• Autores: Eliud Silva, Adrián Ovin
• Localización: Estudios demográficos y urbanos, ISSN 0186-7210, ISSN-e 2448-6515, Vol. 34, Nº. 1, 2019 (Ejemplar dedicado a: 100), págs. 129-167
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.24201/edu.v34i1.1805
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Approximation to mortality curves with a non-parametric proposal: The case of the Heligman and Pollard model
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• Dialnet Métricas: 2 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    Se propone un método no paramétrico para aproximar curvas de mortalidad con énfasis en aquellas generadas a través del modelo de Heligman y Pollard (HP), donde mediante funciones de pérdida se suaviza de manera controlada, tal que la tendencia de la mortalidad observada se aproxime lo más posible a la curva de mortalidad producida por el modelo de HP. Por medio de varias aproximaciones, se observa un mejor ajuste en la mortalidad masculina sobre la femenina y más aún a partir de los 12 años de edad, con lo que se proporciona un rango de referencia para la selección de parámetros de suavizamiento para aproximar con esta perspectiva a aquellas curvas de mortalidad que se obtendrían tras aplicar el modelo HP.

  • English

    A non-parametric method is proposed to approximate mortality curves with emphasis on those coming from the Heligman and Pollard model (HP), where loss functions and controlled smoothness are applied such that the trend of the observed mortality data is as close as possible to the curve of mortality produced by the HP model. It can be appreciated with several estimates that the best fit results are obtained for male mortality, and even more so after 12 years old. Using this perspective, it is provided a reference range of the smoothing parameters to approximate those mortality curves that would be obtained after applying the HP model.

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