Is the Dollar’s Hegemonic Role in the International Monetary System Sustainable?

• Aitor Marcos ^[2] ; Sara Urionabarrenetxea ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

     Universidad del País Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea

     Leioa, España

     
  2. [2] IDOM
• Localización: Revista de economía mundial, ISSN 1576-0162, Nº 49, 2018, págs. 165-184
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.33776/rem.v0i49.3892
• Títulos paralelos:
  • ¿Es sostenible el papel hegemónico del dólar en el sistema monetario internacional?
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    Desde la firma de los acuerdos de Bretton Woods, el dólar ha constituido el eje central del Sistema Monetario Internacional. No obstante, ¿es esta hegemonía sostenible en el medio plazo? Este artículo trata de responder a la pregunta utilizando un enfoque prospectivo basado en los Sistemas Adaptativos Complejos (SAC) de la Economía de la Complejidad. Si se observa el SMI como un SAC el mayor peligro deriva de su evolución endógena. El moderno dilema de Triffin y la tendencia hacia la multipolaridad en el sistema económico – como contraparte de la unipolaridad continuada del sistema monetario – hace necesaria una adaptación del sistema. En cualquier caso, dicha adaptación no se está produciendo. Así, sin necesidad de shocks externos, la propia naturaleza del SMI genera la erosión de la confianza en el dólar en medio y largo plazo. Es esencial la cooperación de los agentes interactivos que participan en el sistema para lograr la adaptación del SMI y su propia reconstrucción.

  • English

    Since the signing of the Bretton Woods Agreements, the US dollar has formed the central axis of the International Monetary System (IMS). However, is this hegemonic situation sustainable in the medium to long term? This study seeks to answer that question using a prospective approach based on the Complex Adaptive Systems (CASs) underlying Complexity Economics. The greatest danger facing the current IMS as a CAS lies in its endogenous evolution.

    The modern Triffin dilemma and a tendency towards multipolarity in the economic system –as opposed to the continued unipolarity of the monetary system– make it essential to adapt the system. However, no such adaptation is currently taking place. Thus, with no need for any external shock, the very nature of the IMS leads to an eroding of confidence in the dollar in the medium/ long term. In order for the IMS to adapt and reconstruct itself, co-operation between interactive agents participating in the system is essential.

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