Acceso usuarios
María Rubio Misas, Magdalena Fernández Moreno
Analizamos la solvencia de las mutualidades de previsión social cuyas actividades superan el territorio de una Comunidad Autónoma durante el período 2010-2012. Se muestra que el ratio regulatorio de solvencia es un buen determinante de la fortaleza financiera futura de estas entidades y que los modelos clasifican adecuadamente a una amplia mayoría. Del análisis de los factores que influyen en el futuro nivel de solvencia de las mismas se desprende que la rentabilidad económica y el crecimiento de las primas afectan de manera positiva, mientras que el uso del reaseguro y el apalancamiento de suscripción lo hacen de manera negativa.
This work analyzes solvency of social benefit institutions for the period 2010-2012 using the regulatory solvency ratio as a measure of financial strength. Two basic objectives are pursued: (1) to test whether the lagged regulatory solvency ratio is a strong predictor of the future regulatory solvency ratio and develop a prediction model to classify social benefit institutions regarding their financial strength; and (2) to know the firm characteristics that affect the probability of insolvency of social benefit institutions. This paper contributes to literature by: (1) being the first analyzing solvency of social benefit institutions; (2) applying ordered logit models that have not previously been applied to insurers of the Spanish insurance market although these models have been used in the study of solvency of other markets; (3) being one of the few studies on Spanish insurers using non-financial variables in the analysis.
