Relationship between mining revenue, government consumption, exchange rate and economic growth in Botswana

• Kegomoditswe Koitsiwe ^[1] ; Tsuyoshi Adachi ^[1]
  1. [1] Akita University

     Akita University

     Japón

     
• Localización: Contaduría y administración, ISSN 0186-1042, ISSN-e 2448-8410, Vol. 60, Nº. Extra 1, 2015, págs. 133-148
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.1016/j.cya.2015.08.002
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Relación entre ingreso minero, consumo del gobierno, tipo de cambio y crecimiento económico en Bostwana
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de este estudio es investigar en forma empírica las relaciones dinámicas entre ingreso minero, consumo del gobierno, tipo de cambio y crecimiento económico en Bostwana. Se analizó información trimestral de 1994 a 2012 usando un modelo de vectores autorregresivos (VAR) no restringidos que consiste en la función de respuesta al impul-so y descomposición de varianzas. Adicionalmente, se empleó la causalidad Granger del VAR para examinar la dirección de la causalidad entre variables. La función de respuesta al impulso mostró la respuesta positiva y negativa a impactos mineros mientras que la descomposición de varianzas indica que el ingreso minero define la variabilidad en creci-miento económico y consumo del gobierno. Los resultados empíricos también sugieren que el ingreso minero y la tipo de cambio causan en el sentido de Granger, el crecimiento económico mientras que el consumo del gobierno es causado por el ingreso minero y el crecimiento económico. Estas observaciones revelan lo vulnerable que es la economía de Bostwana a los impactos de choques externos. Concluimos que, aunque el sector minero tiene un papel importante en la economía de Bostwana, es necesario que el gobierno adopte reformas estructurales adicionales que fomenten el desarrollo del sector no minero para diversificar la exportación.

  • English

    This study empirically investigates the dynamic relationships between mining revenue, government consumption, exchange rate and economic growth in Botswana. Quarterly data from 1994 to 2012 were analysed through the use of unrestricted vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling consisting of impulse response functions, variance decomposition and VAR Granger causality. The impulse response functions showed the positive and negative response to mining shocks while variance decomposition indicates that mining revenue defines the variability in economic growth and government consumption. The empirical results also suggest that mining revenue and exchange rate granger cause economic growth while government consumption is caused by mining revenue and economic growth. These observations reveal how vulnerable the economy of Botswana is to external shocks. We conclude that, although mining sector has a significant role in the economy of Botswana,it is necessary for the government to adopt further structural reforms that promote non-mi-ning sector development to diversify the export.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Auty, R. M. (1986). Resource-based industrialisation and country size: Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. Geoforum. 17 (3/4), 325-338.
  • Auty, R. M. (1993). Sustaining Development in Mineral Economies: The Resource Curse, Doctoral Thesis, Department of Geography, Lancaster University.
  • Auty, R. M. (2001). Resource Abundance and Economic Development, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Auty, R. M. (2001). The political state and the management of mineral rents in capital-surplus economies: Botswana and Saudi. Resource Policy,...
  • Bank of Botswana (2004), Bank of Botswana Annual Report 2004, Gaborone: Bank of Botswana.
  • Bank of Botswana (2012), Botswana of Botswana Annual Report 2012, Gaborone: Bank of Botswana.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrika, 49 (4),...
  • Enders, W. (1995). Applied econometric time series. John Wiley and sons, New York.
  • Erling, R. L. (2006). Escaping the Resource Curse and the Dutch disease? When and why did Norway caught up with and forged ahead of its neighbours....
  • Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relationships by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica 37: 424-438.
  • Hamdi, H. and Sbia, R. (2013). Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil dependent economy....
  • Iimi, A. (2006a). Did Botswana Escape from Resource Curse? IMF Working Paper WP/06/138, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegrating vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12 (2/3), 231-254.
  • Kimberley Process Rough Diamond Statistics, https://kimberleyprocessstatistics.org/, June 2014.
  • Love, R. (1994). Drought, Dutch disease and controlled transition in Botswana agriculture. Journal of Southern African Studies, 20 (1), 71-83.
  • MacKinnon, J.G., Haug, A.A. and Michelis, L. (1999). Numerical distribution functions of like-lihood ratio tests for cointegration. Journal...
  • Magang, D. (2015). Delusions of grandeur; Paradoxies and Ambivalences in Botswana’s Macroeconomic Firmament. Print Media Consult, Gaborone.
  • Mogotsi, I. (2002). Botswana’s diamonds boom: was there a Dutch disease? South African Journal of Economics, 70 (1), 128-155.
  • Olusi, J. O. and Olagunji, M. A. (2005). The Primary Sectors of the economy and the Dutch disease in Nigeria. The Pakistan Development Review,...
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75 (2), 335-346.
  • Ross, M. (2003). The natural resource curse: how wealth can make you poor. In: Bannon, I., Collier, P. (Eds.) Natural Resources and Violent...
  • Rosser, A. (2007). Escaping the Resource Curse; The case of Indonesia. Journal of Contemporary Asia, 37 (1), 38-58.
  • Sachs, J.D. and Warner, A.M. (1995a). Natural Resource Abundance and Economic Growth. NBER Working Paper No.5398, December.
  • Sachs, J.D. and Warner, A.M. (1997a). Natural resource abundance and economic growth. Center for International Development and Harvard Institute...
  • Sachs, J.D. and Warner, A.M. (1997b). Sources of slow growth in African economies. Journal of African Economies 6 (3): 335-376.
  • Sachs, J. D. and Warner, A.M. (2001). The curse of natural resources. European Economic Review, 45: 827-838.
  • Sahoo, A. K. and Sahu, N. C. and Sahoo. D. and Pradhan, B. B. (2014). Mineral export and economic growth in India: evidence from VAR model...
  • Samatar, A.I. (1999). An African Miracle: State and Class Leadership and Colonial Legacy in Botswana Development. Heinemann, pp.217.
  • Sarraf, M. and Jiwanji, M. (2001). Beating the resource curse: the case of Botswana. Environment Department Working Paper no.83, Report no.24753,...
  • Satti, S. L. and Farooq, A. and Loganathan, N. and Shahbaz, M. (2014). Empirical evidence on the resource curse hypothesis in oil abundant...
  • Sims, C. A. (1980). Macroeconomics and reality. Econometrica 48 (1): 1-48.
  • Siphambe, H. K., Narayana, N., Akinkugbe, O. and Sentsho, J. (2005). Economic Development of Botswana: Facets, Policies, Problems and Prospects....
  • Soto, R. and Haouas, I. (2012). Has the UAE escaped the oil curse? Economic research forum, Working Paper No.728, 2012.
  • Stijns, J. P. C. (2005). Natural resource abundance and economic growth revisited. Resource Policy, 30 (2), 107-130.
  • Usui, N. (1997). Dutch disease and policy adjustments to the oil boom: a comparative study of Indonesia and Mexico. Resource Policy 23 (4):...
  • World Bank (2000b). World Development Indicators 2000. World Bank, Washington DC.