Acceso usuarios
Thomas Gries, Irene Palnau
Random shocks may push households that are not identified as being indigent into poverty. While regional poverty profiles have been elaborated for Brazil, vulnerability to poverty, i.e. the risk of falling into poverty in the future, has gained little attention. Using the Brazilian National Household Sample Survey (PNAD), we apply a multilevel framework to calculate vulnerability measures and map the prevalence of vulnerability. We identify states and regions in which fluctuations in income produce disproportionately high rates of vulnerability. Hence, this is the first contribution that can draw a comprehensive regional picture of vulnerability, including rural areas. When discussing the determinants of vulnerability, recent literature typically focuses on current and often endogenous conditions, such as institutions or recent policies. However, we take up the idea of long term path dependence and link up our findings to clearly exogenous regional characteristics like geographic, climatic and historic aspects that potentially drive vulnerability.
