The British general election: Synthetic forecasts

• Michael S. Lewis-Beck ^[1] ; Richard Nadeau ^[2] ; Éric Bélanger ^[3]
  1. [1] University of Iowa

     University of Iowa

     City of Iowa City, Estados Unidos

     
  2. [2] University of Montreal

     University of Montreal

     Canadá

     
  3. [3] McGill University

     McGill University

     Canadá

     

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• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 41, 2016, págs. 264-268
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.010
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • Election forecasting work, in Britain and elsewhere, has been confined mainly to traditional approaches – statistical modeling or poll-watching. We import a new approach, which we call synthetic modeling. These models, developed out of forecasting efforts from the American 2012 presidential election, we are currently testing in a comparative European context. In this exercise, we apply the strategy to forecasting British general elections, in particular the upcoming 2015 contest. These synthetic forecasts come from hybrid models blending structural knowledge with contemporary public opinion. We generate ongoing nowcasts, from six months prior, to one month before, Election Day itself.