Victory without power: The Pm-Pendulum forecast

• Matthew J. Lebo ^[1] ; Helmut Norpoth ^[1]
  1. [1] Stony Brook University

     Stony Brook University

     Town of Brookhaven, Estados Unidos

     
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 41, 2016, págs. 255-259
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.012
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Resumen

  • The “PM and Pendulum” model was adjusted for the 2015 General Election to take account of the Liberal-Democratic participation in government and the SNP surge. So adjusted, the model predicts a Tory vote victory by 3.4 percent over Labour. The seat forecast puts the Tories ahead with 287 seats to 263 for Labour, with 41 for the SNP. Thus another Hung Parliament! Ex-post estimates show that without the Lib-Dem adjustments the model would have predicted a Conservative majority.