Piecing it all together and forecasting who governs: The 2015 British general election

• Stephen D. Fisher ^[1]
  1. [1] University of Oxford

     University of Oxford

     Oxford District, Reino Unido

     
• Localización: Electoral Studies: An international Journal, ISSN 0261-3794, Nº 41, 2016, págs. 234-238
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2015.11.014
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• Resumen

  • This paper discusses a new probabilistic forecasting method that was designed for the 2015 British general election. It proceeds in a series of steps from opinion poll averaging, forecasting national-level vote shares and uncertainty estimates, and subsequent simulation of hypothetical election results, through modelling of constituency polls and survey data to identify and adjust for patterns in the constituency-level variation in party performance, and finally to probabilistic forecasting of seat outcomes and of different combinations of parties commanding relevant governing majorities in parliament.