Acceso usuarios
Hania Zlotnik
The reductions of fertility that have produced very low or even negative levels of natural increase in a growing number of countries have transformed international migration into a major determinant of population change. This paper reviews trends in natural increase and net migration at the regional level and analyzes the contribution that net migration has made to the population growth of major world regions. It shows that net migration has had a greater impact in increasing population growth in regions of immigration ( Europe, Northern, America and Oceania) than in reducing it in regions of emigration (Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean). Among countries with net migration equivalent to more than half of natural increase, the number with positive net migration has been increasing more rapidly than the number with negative net migration , indicating again that migration has had a greater impact in increasing population growth than in decreasing it. An analysis of the relationship between rates of natural increase and net migration rates shows that that relationship is weak and cannot validate the claim that emigration increases as natural increase rises. The paper concludes that, as more countries experience very low or even negative levels of natural increase, migration will become increasingly crucial in determining both the direction and the magnitude of population change.
