El robo de vehículos en la ciudad de México: Patrones espaciales y series de tiempo

• Autores: Carlos J. Vilalta Perdomo
• Localización: Gestión y política pública, ISSN-e 2448-9182, ISSN 1405-1079, Vol. 20, Nº. 1, 2011, págs. 97-139
• Idioma: español
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Vehicle Theft Crimes in Mexico City: Spatial Patterns and Time Series
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 5 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    Se analizan en este artículo los patrones espaciales y las series de tiempo del delito de robo de vehículos en la ciudad de México. Los datos se refieren a las averiguaciones previas y detenciones, y se examinan en el ámbito delegacional y por sectores policiacos, así como en series anuales, mensuales y diarias. Este enfoque analítico permite la detección probabilística de hotspots y la predicción del promedio de robos por día de la semana de acuerdo con cada delegación de la ciudad. Esto se realiza hasta donde lo permiten la confiabilidad de los datos, el error muestral, y en parcial desconexión de las causas teóricamente probables. Los hallazgos se discuten en relación con acciones de política pública para la prevención y reducción en la incidencia de este delito.

  • English

    This paper analyzes the spatial patterns and trends of vehicle theft crimes in Mexico City. Data on arrests and criminal warrants are examined at the municipality and police sector levels. Also, series are examined in a yearly, monthly and daily fashion. This allows the detection of hotspots and the probabilistic forecasting of vehicle theft crimes on a daily basis. This is performed within reasonable limits of data reliability sampling error, and in disconnection from theoretical postulates. Findings are discussed in relationship to criminal prevention policy actions.

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