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In May 2007, a United States District Court declined to grant the Federal Trade Commission a preliminary injunction that would have blocked the merger of two petroleum refiners that served Albuquerque, New Mexico, and surrounding areas. This study compares estimates of the post-merger price effect to the price effects that were predicted by economic experts on both sides of the case. I find little scope to interpret the evidence as consistent with an anticompetitive post-merger price effect. I also highlight the difficulties that are involved in econometrically identifying small effects even with an abundance of pricing data
