“Una propuesta metodológica para la cuantificación de los aspectos geopolíticos de la seguridad energética”.

• Javier García-Verdugo Sales ^[1] ; Beatriz Muñoz Delgado ^[2] ; Enrique San Martín Gonzalez ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia

     Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia

     Madrid, España

     
  2. [2] Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

     Universidad Autónoma de Madrid

     Madrid, España

     
• Localización: Revista de economía mundial, ISSN 1576-0162, Nº 39, 2015, págs. 45-76
• Idioma: español
• Títulos paralelos:
  • "A Methodological Proposal to Quantify the Geopolitical Dimension of Energy Security".
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de este artículo es desarrollar un método para estimar cuantitati¬vamente el riesgo de abastecimiento energético de carácter geopolítico que proporcione una alternativa más rigurosa que el uso habitual de escenarios futuros basados en probabilidades subjetivas. Utilizando el análisis factorial se han identificado cuatro factores parciales de riesgo energético (económico, político, social y del propio sector energético) que se agregan para calcular el Índice de Riesgo Energético de origen Socioeconómico (IRES). Este estimador de la seguridad energética de un país o de un corredor puede también usarse en la construcción de modelos y escenarios.

  • English

    This article aims to develop a method of quantitatively estimating the geopolit¬ical risk of energy supply as a rigorous alternative to the use of future scenarios based on subjective probabilities. Using factor analysis, four partial risk factors have been identified (economic, political, social and energy-specific) that were aggregated into a composite Socioeconomic Energy Risk Index (SERI). This indicator of a country's or a corridor's energy security of supply can also be usefully employed in model and scenario building.

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