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This paper is the first exploratory and quantitative study on a global scale of the current and future impact of ISO 20000, a standard that is forecast to play an important role in the information technology service management field. For the analysis of the current situation, this article first describes this standard and other related standards. This is followed by a diffusion analysis using worldwide certification data. It also analyses geographical distribution by continents and countries and examines its evolution over time through comparison with other management-system standards. The analysis extends to the relationships existing between countries, and a clear correlation is detected between different countries regarding the number of certifications and certification intensity. Regarding future forecasts, a logistic curve is used to detect the theoretical saturation point, which is earlier than previously thought. Therefore, and comparing it with an updated forecast for other parallel standards (viz: ISO 9001, ISO 14001 and ISO 27001), the analysis presents a new scenario in the field of management-system standardisation.
