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Voting and voters have changed. The growing level of hesitation, the ups and downs of turn- out but also of partisan supports are clear proofs of it. In this article, we will try to understand this “ new deal ” by presenting and using a particular tool: the voting probability questions. These ques- tions present a very different portrait of voters than the one drawn by the classical voting inten- tions questions. Negative logic of voting appears as is the space of voting possibilities of individuals.
Furthermore, they shed a new light on the dyna- mics of the 2012 presidential campaign and on the ongoing ideological reconfiguration both on the left and on the right. These analyses are based on the TriÉlec surveys conducted between July 2011 and March 2012.
