Resumen de Toward a new risk architecture: the question of catastrophe risk calculus

Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan

• This paper examines the challenge of the calculus of risk while arguing for the necessity of new risk architecture. The field of catastrophe risk management today is faced with disasters of a totally new nature and scale as well recent important events that pose significant challenges to the established paradigm. This paper proposes a new risk architecture based around the following six central features: Growing interdependencies/globalization; change in scale from local to global risks; extreme costs, extreme benefits (a new loss dimension); confusing distribution of roles and responsibilities of preparedness; celerity (toward a just-in-time society); and uncertainty, if not ignorance. The paper then looks at large-scale natural disasters and terrorism threats as two illustrative cases for understanding this new threat architecture, arguing that uncertainty related to the estimate of future disaster is even more challenging because it is so dynamic. The paper argues that in this new era of global risks and interdependencies, how people make long-term decision under conditions of uncertainty will be an important element to consider in developing the new risk architecture.