Resumen de Possibilistic thinking: a new conceptual tool for thinking about extreme events

Lee Clarke

• A great deal of scholarship defines rational thought in terms of probability theory. An important problem with such an approach is that disasters, particularly large disasters, do not provide us with a meaningful distribution of events that would approximate a normal curve. Here, I propose that using possibilistic thinking can helpfully complement probabilistic thinking regarding risk and disaster. Possibilistic thinking highlights consequences of actions or events, while not ignoring their likelihood of occurrence. I point out the myriad ways that individuals and organizations use possibilistic thinking, even if they do not recognized it as such. I propose several conceptual tools to help discipline a possibilistic approach.