Resumen de Stock and bond market interactions with two regime shifts: evidence from Turkey

Pinar Evrim-Mandaci, Hakan Kahyaoglu, Efe Caglar Cagli

• This study aims to examine the relationship between the stock market and the government bond market in Turkey over a period from May 2001 to August 2009 in order to find out whether specific asset allocation in these markets provides benefits. This article employs several cointegration techniques such as Engle and Granger (EG, 1987), Gregory and Hansen (GH, 1996) and Hatemi-J (HJ, 2008). Furthermore, it applies the long run elasticities of Stock and Watson (199343. Stock , JH and Watson , MW . 1993 . A simple estimator of cointegrating vectors in higher order integrated systems . Econometrica , 61 : 783 � 820 .

  [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] View all references) and parameter stability tests of Hansen (199221. Hansen , BE . 1992 . Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , 10 : 321 � 35 .

  [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] View all references) and Andrews (19934. Andrews , DWK . 1993 . Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point . Econometrica , 61 : 821 � 56 .

  [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] View all references). According to the results of EG and GH tests, the government bond index is not cointegrated with any other stock market indices. In contrast to the previous tests, we find a relationship which indicates low benefits of asset allocation between some stock indices and the government bond index when we employ the HJ method which takes two structural breaks into consideration. When we use the long run elasticities based on Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Dynamic OLS (DOLS) procedures, we find that the government bond index has a significant effect on some stock indices. In addition, employing the stability test of Hansen (199221. Hansen , BE . 1992 . Tests for parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes . Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , 10 : 321 � 35 .

  [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] View all references), we find that the results of cointegration test with structural breaks (HJ) are consistent. Finally, we use Quandt�Andrews (Andrews, 19934. Andrews , DWK . 1993 . Tests for parameter instability and structural change with unknown change point . Econometrica , 61 : 821 � 56 .

  [CrossRef], [Web of Science ®] View all references) test and investigate possible break points in the relationship between price indices.