The terms of trade for agricultural and food products, 1951-2000

• Autores: Raúl Serrano Lázaro, Vicente José Pinilla Navarro
• Localización: Revista de Historia Económica = Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, ISSN 0212-6109, Año nº 29, Nº 2, 2011, págs. 213-244
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1017/s0212610911000103
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 7 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de este trabajo es comprobar con datos empíricos si ha habido, como plantearon Singer�Prebisch, un declive secular en los términos de intercambio de los productos primarios. El trabajo se centra en el análisis de la evolución de los términos de intercambio de los productos del comercio agrícola y alimentario en la segunda mitad del siglo pasado. Hemos construido sesenta nuevas series de índices de precios reales de productos agrarios que participaban en el comercio internacional. Concluimos, que desde una perspectiva de largo plazo, el deterioro de los términos de intercambio de los productos agrarios y alimentos fue nítido y fuerte en los últimos cincuenta años del siglo pasado. En general, los productos con menor grado de elaboración han sufrido una caída muy importante de sus precios reales. Sin embargo, ni en conjunto ni para la gran mayoría de los grupos de productos agrarios y alimentos (a excepción de los grupos, caucho natural, fibras textiles y otras materias primas) hubo un deterioro continuo y persistente de los términos de intercambio, sino que éste se produjo de forma escalonada.

  • English

    This study aims to answer whether empirical records confirm the existence of a secular decline in the terms of trade affecting primary producers (the Singer�Prebisch hypothesis). The paper analyses the evolution of the terms of trade for agricultural and food products in the second half of the 20th century. We obtain sixty new real price indices for internationally traded agricultural products. We conclude, from a long-term perspective, that the deterioration in the terms of trade for agricultural and food products was strong and clear in the second half of the last century. In general, less processed products suffered a very heavy fall in their real prices. However, there was no continuous and persistent deterioration in the terms of trade either as a whole or for the great majority of the agricultural and food product groups (with the exception of natural rubber, textile fibres and other raw materials). Rather, this deterioration occurred in stages.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • ASKOY, M. (2005): «Global Agricultural Trade Policies», in M. Askoy, and J. Beghin (eds), Global Agricultural Trade and Developing Countries....
  • BAFFES, J. (2005): «Cotton: Market Setting, Trade Policies, and Issues», in M. Askoy, and J. Beghin (eds), Global Agricultural Trade and Developing...
  • BALAGTAS, J. V., and HOLT, M. T. (2009): «The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach»....
  • BLATTMAN, C.; HWANG, J., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2007): «Winners and Losers in the Commodity Lottery: The Impact of Terms of Trade Growth and...
  • BLOCH, H., and SAPSFORD, D. (1997): «Some Estimates of Prebisch and Singer Effects on the Terms of Trade between Primary Producers and Manufacturers»....
  • BULMER THOMAS, V. (1994): The Economic History of Latin America Since Independence. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • CASHIN, P., and MCDERMOTT, C. J. (2006): «Properties of International Commodity Prices: Identifying Trends, Cycles and Shocks», in A. Sarris,...
  • CLEMENTE, J.; MONTANÉS, A., and REYES, M. (1998): «Testing for a Unit Root in Variables with a Double Change in the Mean». Econometrics Letters...
  • CRANFIELD, J.; EALES, J.; HERTEL, T., and PRECKEL, P. (2003): «Model Selection When Estimating and Predicting Consumer Demands Using International...
  • CUDDINGTON, J. (1992): «Long-run Trends in 26 Primary Commodity Prices». Journal of Development Economics 39 (2), pp. 207-227.
  • CUDDINGTON, J., and URZU A, C. (1989): «Trends and Cycles in the Net Barter Terms of Trade: A New Approach». Journal of Development Economics...
  • CUDDINGTON, J. T.; LUDEMA, R., and JAYASURIYA, S. A. (2007): «Prebish-Singer Redux», in D. Lederman, and W. F. Maloney (eds), Natural Resources....
  • DELGADO, C.; ROSEGRANT, M.; STEINFELD, H.; EHUI, S., and COUBOUIS, C. (1999): «Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution», Food, Agriculture,...
  • DIAKOSAVVAS, D., and SCANDIZZO, P. (1991): «Trends in the Terms of Trade of Primary Commodities, 1990-1982: The Controversy and its Origins»....
  • DIAZ BONILLA, E., and TIN, J. (2002): «That Was Then but this is Now: Multifunctionality in Industry and Agriculture», TMD Discussion Paper...
  • DICKEY, D. A., and FULLER, W. A. (1981): «Likelihood Ratio Tests for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root». Econometrica 49, pp. 1057-1072.
  • DYSON, T. (1996): Population and Food: Global Trends and Future Prospects. London: Routledge.
  • FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS (1947-2000): Trade Yearbook FAO. Rome: FAO.
  • FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS (2002): Agricultura mundial: hacia los años 2015/2030. Rome: FAO.
  • FAOSTAT (2004): FAOSTAT-Agriculture-Database. Rome: FAO. Available at http://faostat.fao.org/default.aspx.
  • FEDERICO, G. (2005): Feeding the World. An Economic History of Agriculture, 1800-2000. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
  • GEHLHAR, M., and COYLE, W. (2001): «Global Food Consumption and Impacts on Trade Patterns», in A. Regmi (ed.), Changing Structure of Global...
  • GILBERT, C. (1996): «International Commodity Agreements: An Obituary Notice». World Development 24 (1), pp. 1-19.
  • GRIGG, D. (1995): «The Nutritional Transition in Western Europe». Journal of Historical Geography 22 (1), pp. 247-261.
  • GRILLI, E. R., and YANG, M. C. (1988): «Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Good Prices, and the Terms of Trades of Developing countries:...
  • HADASS, Y. S., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2003): «Terms-of-Trade Shocks and Economic Performance, 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited». Economic...
  • HARVEY, D. I.; KELLARD, N. M.; MADSEN, J. B., and WOHAR, M. E. (2010): «The Prebish- Singer Hypothesis: Four Centuries of Evidence». The Review...
  • HAYAMI, J., and RUTTAN, V. (1985): Agricultural Development. An International Perspective. Baltimore, M.D.: The Johns Hopkins University Press.
  • HELPMAN, E., and KRUGMAN, P. R. (1985): Market Structure and Foreign Trade: Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition, and the International...
  • KELLARD, N., and WOHAR, M. E. (2006): «On the Prevalence of Trends in Primary Commodity Prices». Journal of Development Economics 79 (1),...
  • KRUGMAN, P. R. (1980): «Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade». American Economic Review 70, pp. 950-959.
  • LEÓN, J., and SOTO, R. (1995): «Términos de intercambio en América Latina». El Trimestre Económico 62 (2), pp. 171-199.
  • LEÓN, J., and SOTO, R. (1997): «Structural Breaks and Long-Run Trends in Commodity Prices». Journal of International Development 9 (3), pp....
  • LINDERT, P. (1991): «Historical Patterns of Agricultural Policy», in P. C. Timmer (ed.), Agriculture and the State. Growth, Employment, and...
  • LUTZ, M. (1999a): «A General Test of the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis». Review of Development Economics 3 (1), pp. 44-57.
  • LUTZ, M. (1999b): «Commodity Terms of Trade and Individual Countries' Net Barter Terms of Trade: Is There an Empirical Relationship?»....
  • MORENO, L. A.; SARRIA, A., and POPKIN, B. M. (2002): «The Nutrition Transition in Spain: A European Mediterranean Country». European Journal...
  • NEWBOLD, P.; PFAFFENZELLER, S., and RAYNER, A. (2005): «How Well are Long-Run Commodity Price Series Characterized by Trend Components?»....
  • NGUYEN, T. (1981): «Trends in Terms of Trade of LDCs». Journal of Economic Studies 8 (2), pp. 46-56.
  • OCAMPO, J. A., and PARRA, M. A. (2003): «The Terms of Trade for Commodities in the Twentieth Century». CEPAL Review 79, pp. 7-35.
  • OCAMPO, J. A., and PARRA LANCOURT, M. A. (2010): «The Terms of Trade for Commodities Since the mid-19th Century». Revista de Historia Económica....
  • PERRON, P., and VOGELSANG, T. (1992): «Nonstationary and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity». Journal of Business...
  • PFAFFENZELLER, S.; NEWBOLD, P., and RAYNER, A. (2007): «A Short Note on Updating the Grilli and Yang Commodity Price Index». The World Bank...
  • PINILLA, V., and AYUDA, M. I. (2008): «Market Dynamism and International Trade: A Case Study of Mediterranean Agricultural Products, 1850-1935»....
  • PINILLA, V., and SERRANO, R. (2009): «Agricultural and Food Trade in the European Community since 1963», in K. Patel (ed.), Agricultural Integration...
  • PREBISCH, R. (1950): The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. New York: United Nations.
  • REGMI, A.; DEEPAK, M. S.; SEALE, J. L., and BERNSTEIN, J. (2001): «Cross-Country Analysis of Food Consumption Patterns», in A. Regmi (ed.),...
  • REIMER, J. J., and HERTEL, T. H. (2004): «Estimation of International Demand Behavior for Use with Input-Output Based Data». Economic Systems...
  • ROSEGRANT, M. W., and PAISNER, M. S. (2000): Long Term Perspectives on the Change of Major Agricultural and Resource Base Variables. Washington,...
  • SAPSFORD, D. (1985): «The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures: A Comment and...
  • SERRANO, R., and, PINILLA, V. (2008): «Comercio agrario latinoamericano, 1963-2000: aplicación de la ecuación gravitacional para los flujos...
  • Serrano, R, and., PINILLA, V. (2009): «Changes in the Structure of World Trade in Agri-Food Products: Evidence from Gravity Modelling in a...
  • SERRANO, R., and PINILLA, V. (2011a): «Agricultural and Food Trade in European Union Countries, 1963-2000: A Gravity Equation Approach». Economies...
  • SERRANO, R., and PINILLA, V. (2011b): «The Evolution and Changing Geographical Structure of World Agri-Food Trade, 1950-2000». Revista de...
  • SERRANO, R., and PINILLA, V. (2011c): «The Long-Run Decline in the Share of Agricultural and Food Products in International Trade, 1951-2000:...
  • SINGER, H. (1950): «The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries». American Economic Review 40, pp. 473-485.
  • SPATAFORA, N, and., TYTELL, I. (2009): «Commodity Terms of Trade: The History of Booms and Busts», IMF Working Paper WP/09/205.
  • SPRAOS, J. (1980): «The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures». Economic Journal...
  • TEUTEBERG, H. (1992): European Food History. London: Leicester University Press.
  • TYRES, R., and ANDERSON, K. (1992): Disarray in World Food Markets: A Quantitative Assessment. Hong Kong: Cambridge University Press.
  • UNITED NATIONS (1987): Métodos utilizados por las Naciones Unidas para construirÍndices de Precios del Comercio Internacional, Informes Estadi{dotless}sticos,...
  • WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION (2003): Selected Long-Term, Trends International Trade Statistics 2003. Geneva: WTO. Available at http://www.wto.org/spanish/res_s/statis_s/its2003_s/its03_longterm_s.htm.
  • YATES, P. L. (1960): Food, Land, and Manpower in Western Europe. New York: Macmillan.
  • YU, W.; HERTEL, T.; PRECKEL, P., and EALES, J. (2002): «Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems». Economic Modelling...
  • Zanias, G. P. (2005): «Testing for Trends in the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactured Goods». Journal of Development...