La peseta y la paridad del poder adquisitivo en el largo plazo (1868-2001).

• Autores: Gema Fabro Esteban, José Aixalá Pastó
• Localización: Revista de economía mundial, ISSN 1576-0162, Nº 27, 2011, págs. 173-188
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de este trabajo es contrastar la teoría de la paridad del poder adquisitivo para el caso de la peseta española frente a tres monedas de referencia, como son el dólar, el franco y la libra. El período de contrastación abarca toda la vida de la peseta, lo cual permite realizar un análisis de largo plazo. Se utilizan tanto tipos de cambio bilaterales como multilaterales. Los resultados muestran que la teoría no se cumple cuando se emplean los tipos de cambio oficiales para todo el período, pero sí se cumple cuando se sustituyen los citados tipos de cambio por los cotizados en el mercado libre de Tánger durante las décadas de los cuarenta y cincuenta.

  • English

    The aim of this paper is to contrast the theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) in the case of the Spanish peseta against the dollar, the franc and the pound. The period of study covers the entire life of the peseta, which allows a long-term analysis. We use both bilateral and multilateral exchange rates. The results don�t show evidence of PPP when we use the official exchange rates for the whole period, but PPP holds when these are replaced by the exchange rates quoted in the free market in Tangier during the decades of the forties and fifties.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Aixalá, J. (1999): La peseta y los precios. Un análisis de largo plazo (1868-1995), Prensas Universitarias, Zaragoza.
  • Ardeni, P. G. y Lubian, D. (1991): "Is There Trend Reversion in Purchasing Power Parity?", European Economic Review, 35(5), 1035-1055.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. y Gelan, A. (2006): "Testing the PPP in the Non-linear STAR Framework: Evidence from Africa", Economics Bulletin,...
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1988): "Do Exchange Rates Follow a Random Walk Process in Middle Eastern Countries?", Economics Letters, 58,...
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M.; Kutan, A. M. y Zhou, S. (2007): "Testing PPP in the Non-linear STAR Framework", Economics Letters, 94(1), 104-110.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M.; Kutan, A. M. y Zhou, S. (2008): "Do Real Exchanges Rates Follow a Non-Linear Mean Reverting Process in Developing...
  • Cassel, G. (1916): "The Present Situation of Foreing Exchanges". The Economic Journal, 26, 62-65.
  • Cassel, G. (1918): "Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges". The Economic Journal, 28, 413-415.
  • Cassel, G. (1922): Money and foreign exchange after 1914, Constable and Co, Londres.
  • Cassel, G. (1924): "The Purchasing Power Parity". Skandinaviska Kreditaktiebolaget, 68-70.
  • Cerrato, M. y Satantis, N. (2006): "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing and Emerging Market Economies",...
  • Chortareas, G. E.; Kapetanios, G. y Yongcheol, S. (2002): "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchanges Rates", Economics Letters, 77,...
  • Choudhry, T. y. Luintel, K. B (2001): "The Long-run Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Colonial Pensylvania", Economics...
  • Coakley, J; Kellard, N. y Snaith, S. (2005): "The PPP Debate: Price Matters!". Economics Letters, 88, 209-213.
  • Dickey, D. A. y Fuller, W. A. (1979): "Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Journal of...
  • Dickey, D. A. y Fuller, W. A. (1981): " Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root", Econometrica,...
  • Elliott, G.; Rothenberg, T. J. y Stock, J. H. (1996): "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root", Econometrica, 64, 813-836.
  • Frankel, J. A. (1986): "International Capital Mobility and Crowding-out in the U.S. Economy: Imperfect Integration of Financial Markets...
  • Froot, K. A. y Rogoff, K. (1995): "Perspectives on PPP and Long-run Real Exchange rates", Handbook of International Economics, 3,...
  • Gadea, M. D. y Sabaté, M. (2004): "The European Periphery in the Era of the Gold Standard: The Case of the Spanish Peseta and the Pound...
  • Grilli, V. y Kamimsky, G. (1991): "Nominal Exchange Rate Regimes and the Real Exchange Rate", Journal of Monetary Economics, 27, 191-212.
  • Hasan, M. S. (2004): "Univariate Time Series Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from Colonial India", Economics Letters,...
  • Hasan, S. y Wallace, M. (1996): "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Long-term Data", Economics...
  • Kanas, A. y Genius, M. (2005): "Regime (non) Stationarity in the US/UK Real Exchange Rate", Economics Letters, 87, 407-413.
  • Kim, Y (1990): "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegrarion Approach", Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 22(4), 491-503.
  • Liew, V. K.; Lim, K.; Lau, E. y Choong, C. (2005): "Exchange Rate-Relative Price Nonlinear Cointegration Relationship in Malaysia",...
  • Liew, V. K.; Baharumshah, A. Z. y Chong, T. T. (2004): "Are Asian Real Exchange Rates Stationary?" Economics Letters, 83, 313-316.
  • Montañés, A. y Clemente, J. (1999): "Real Exchange Rates and Structural Breaks: Evidence for the Spanish Peseta", Applied Economics...
  • Officer, L. H. (1982): Purchasing Power Parity and Exchange Rates: Theory, Evidence and Relevance, Jai Press, Greenwich/Londres.
  • Phillips, P y Perron, P. (1988): "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression", Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
  • Rogoff, K. (1996): "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle". Journal of Economic Literature, 34, 647-668.
  • Sabaté, M.; Gadea, M. D. y Serrano, J. M. (2003): "PPP and Structural Breaks: The Peseta-Sterling Rate, 50 Years of a Floating Regime",...
  • Sabaté, M.; Gadea, M. D. y. Serrano, J. M (2005): "The Spanish Peseta versus the Pound Sterling, the French Franc and the US Dollar (1870-1935)....
  • Sarno, L (2005): "Viewpoint: Towards a Solution to the Puzzles in Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?", Canadian Journal of...
  • Sarno, L. y Taylor, M. P. (2002): "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate", IMF Staff Papers, 49(1), 65-105.
  • Shively, P. A. (2001): "A Test of Long-run Purchasing Power Parity", Economics Letters, 73, 201-205.
  • Yoon, G. (2008): "Are Real Exchange Rates More Likely to Be Stationary During the Fixed Nominal Exchange Rate Regime?", Applied Economics...