Un modelo para la evolución de las temperaturas de la Tierra

• Autores: Agustín Alonso Rodríguez
• Localización: Anuario jurídico y económico escurialense, ISSN 1133-3677, Nº. 43, 2010, págs. 249-272
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    Tomando como pretexto la celebración de la Cumbre sobre el Cambio Climático, en Copenhagen, se analiza la serie de temperaturas globales medias, en desviaciones a la media del periodo 1951-1980, elaborada por la NASA, desde 1900 hasta 2008. Un modelo de espacio de estados se estima para estos datos, y al final del periodo se hace un ejercicio de simulación para ver la posible evolución de las temperaturas hasta el año 2020.

  • English

    At the occasion of celebrating the Global Summit on Climate Change, in Copenhagen, the series of global temperatures in deviations to the mean of the period 1951-1980, prepared by NASA, is analyzed. A state space model is estimated for this series, and, at the end of the period, a simulation exercise is performed to vision the evolution of global temperatures to year 2020.

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