Los determinantes del gasto en defensa en la literatura académica de los últimos cincuenta años: una revisión de las principales aportaciones y modelos

• Autores: Miguel Ángel Alonso Neira , Antonio Martínez Gonzalez
• Localización: Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, ISSN 0210-1173, Nº 187, 2008, págs. 109-139
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen

  • Aunque es difícil establecer una clasificación de los modelos que analizan los determinantes del gasto en defensa debido a su gran heterogeneidad, el presente trabajo toma como referencia las aportaciones de Smith (1989) y Dunne y Perlo-Freeman (2003a y 2003b) para ofrecer una taxonomía alternativa de los estudios teóricos propuestos en la literatura académica de los últimos cincuenta años. Concretamente, establece una división en tres bloques: 1) Análisis de las influencias externas del gasto militar (modelos de carrera de armamentos y teoría económica de las alianzas militares), 2) examen de los factores internos que repercuten en la elaboración del presupuesto de defensa (modelos de política organizativa, burocráticos, y políticos del gasto militar), y 3) estudios empíricos sobre los determinantes del gasto en defensa, que examinan los efectos de una amplia combinación de variables económicas, políticas y geoestratégicas sobre el presupuesto militar.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Adams F. G. y Ciprut, J. V. (1994), "The Demand for Defence in East Asia: Modelling Security Alternatives", Defence and Peace Economics,...
  • Axelrod, R. (1981), "The Emergence of Cooperation among Egoists", The American Political Science Review, 75 (2): 306-318.
  • Batchelor, P.; Dunne, P. y Lamb, G. (2002), "The Demand for Military Spending in South Africa", Journal of Peace Research, 39 (3):...
  • Bobrow, D. B. y Hill, S. R. (1991), "Non-Military Determinants of Military Budgets: The Japanese Case", International Studies Quarterly,...
  • Boulding, K. E. (1962), Conflict and Defense: A General Theory, New York: Harper.
  • Brito, D. L. (1972), "A Dynamic Model of an Armaments Race", International Economic Review, 13 (2): 359-375.
  • Brito, D. L. y Intriligator, M. D. (1999), "Increasing Returns to Scale and the Arms Race: The End of the Richardson Paradigm?", Defence...
  • Burns, A. L. (1959), "A Graphical Approach to Some Problems of the Arms Race", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 3 (4): 326-42.
  • Byers, J. D. y Peel, D. A. (1989), "The Determinants of Arms Expenditures of NATO and the Warsaw Pact: Some Further Evidence", Journal...
  • Caspary, W. R. (1967), "Richardson's Model of Arms Races: Description, Critique, and an Alternative Model", International Studies...
  • Collier, P. y Hoeffler, A. (2002), "Military Expenditure: Threats, Aid, and Arms Races", World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,...
  • Collier, P. y Hoeffler, A. (2007), "Unintended Consequences: Does Aid Promote Arms Races?", Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,...
  • Conybeare, J. A.; Murdoch, J. C. y Sandler, T. (1994), "Alternative Collective-Goods Models of Military Alliances: Theory and Empirics",...
  • Cusack, T. y Ward, M. D. (1981), "Military Spending in the United States, Soviet Union, and the People's Republic of China", Journal...
  • Deger, S. (1986), Military Expenditure and Third World Countries: The Economic Effect, Londres: Routledge y Kegan Paul.
  • Deger, S. y Sen, S. (1990), Military Security and the Economy: Defence Expenditure in India and Pakistan, en Hartley, K. y Sandler, T. (eds.)...
  • Domke, W.; Eichenberg, R. y Kelleher, C. (1983), "The Illusion of Choice: Defense and Welfare in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1948-1978",...
  • Dommen, E. y Maizels, A. (1988), "The Military Burden in Developing Countries", The Journal of Modern African Studies, 26 (3): 377-401.
  • Dudley, L. y Montmarquette, C. (1981), "The Demand for Military Expenditures: An International Comparison", Public Choice, 37 (1):...
  • Dunne, J. P. y Mohammed, N. A. L. (1995), "Military Spending in Sub-Saharan Africa: Some Evidence for 1967-85", Journal of Peace Research,...
  • Dunne, J. P. y Perlo-Freeman, S. (2003a), "The Demand for Military Spending in Developing Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis", Defence...
  • Dunne, J. P. y Perlo-Freeman, S. (2003b), "The Demand for Military Spending in Developing Countries", International Review of Applied...
  • Dunne, J. P.; Nikolaidou, E. y Mylonidis, N. (2003), "The Demand for Military Spending in the Peripheral Economies of Europe", Defence...
  • Dunne, J. P.; Nikolaidou, E. y Smith, R. P. (2005), "Is there an Arms Race between Greece and Turkey?" Peace Economics, Peace Science...
  • Dunne, J. P.; Pashardes, P. y Smith, R. P. (1984), "Needs, Costs and Bureaucracy: The Allocation of Public Consumption in the UK",...
  • Dunne, J. P.; Perlo-Freeman, S. y Smith, R. P. (2007), "The Demand for Military Expenditure in Developing Countries: Hostility versus...
  • Dunne, P. (1996), "Economic effects of military spending in LDCs: a survey". En Gleditsch N. P., A. Cappelen, O. Bjerkholt, R. Smith...
  • Gupta, S.; de Mello, L. y Sharan, R. (2000), "Corruption and Military Spending", IMF Working Paper, 23 (Washington DC: IMF).
  • Harris, G. T. (1986), "The Determinants of Defence Expenditure in the ASEAN Region", Journal of Peace Research, 23 (1): 41-49.
  • Harris, G. T.; Kelly, M. y Pranowo (1988), "Trade-offs Between Defence and Education/Health Expenditures in Developing Countries",...
  • Hewitt, D. F. (1991), "Military Expenditure: Econometric Testing of Economic and Political Influences", IMF Working Paper, 91/53....
  • Hewitt, D. F. (1993), "Military Expenditures 1972-1990: The Reasons Behind the Post-1985 Fall in World Military Spending", IMF Working...
  • Hitch, C. J. y McKean, R. N. (1960), The Economics of Defense in the Nuclear Age, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
  • Huntingdon, S. H. (1958), "Arms Races: Prerequisites and Results", Public Policy, 8 (1): 41-86.
  • Intriligator, M. D. (1975), "Strategic Considerations in the Richardson Model of Arms Races", The Journal of Political Economy, 83...
  • Intriligator, M. D. y Brito, D. L. (1984), "Can Arms Races Lead to the Outbreak of War?", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 28 (1):...
  • Intriligator, M. D. y Brito, D. L. (1985), "Conflict War and Redistribution", The American Political Science Review, 79 (4): 943-957.
  • Intriligator, M. D. y Brito, D. L. (2000), Arms Races, Defence and Peace Economics, 11 (1): 45-54.
  • Kamlet, M. S. y Mowery, D. C. (1987), "Influences on Executive and Congressional Budgetary Priorities, 1955-1981", The American Political...
  • Kent, G. A. (1964), Damage Limiting: A Rationale for the Allocation of Resources by the U.S. and U.S.S.R., Washington: US Department of Defense,...
  • Khanna, J. y Sandler, T. (1997), "NATO Burden-Sharing: 1960-1992", Defence and Peace Economics, 7 (2): 115-134.
  • Kollias, C. y Makrydakis, S. (1997), "Is There a Greek-Turkish Arms Race? Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests", Defence...
  • Looney, R. E. (1989), "Internal and External Factors in Effecting Third World Military Expenditures", Journal of Peace Research, 26...
  • Maizels, A. y Nissanke, M. K. (1986), "The Determinants of Military Expenditures in Developing Countries", World Development, 14 (9):...
  • Majeski, S. J. (1983), "Mathematical Models of the U.S. Military Expenditure Decision-making Process", American Journal of Political...
  • Majeski, S. J. (1984), "The Role of Expectations in Arms Acquisition Processes: The U.S.-U.S.S.R. Case", International Interactions,...
  • Majeski, S. J. (1985), "Expectations and Arms Races", American Journal of Political Science, 29 (2): 217-245.
  • Majeski, S. J. y Jones, D. L. (1981), "Arms Race Modeling: Causality Analysis and Model Specification", Journal of Conflict Resolution,...
  • Markowski, S. J. y Tani, M. (2005), "Defence Expenditure, Spill-ins and Threats in Asia-Pacific 1985-2001", Defence and Security Analysis,...
  • Mayer, T. (1986), "Arms Races and War Initiation: Some Alternatives to the Intriligator-Brito Model", The Journal of Conflict Resolution,...
  • McGinnis, M. D. (1991), "Richardson, Rationality, and Restrictive Models of Arms Races", The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 35 (3):...
  • McGuire, M. C. (1967), "The Structure of Choice Between Deterrence and Defense", en McKean, R.N. (ed.), Issues in Defense Economics,...
  • McGuire, M. C. (1990), "Mixed public-private benefit and public-good supply with application to the NATO alliance", Defence Economics,...
  • Mintz, A.; Ward, M. D. y Bichler, S. (1990), "Defense Spending in Israel", en Hartley, K. y T. Sandler (eds.) The Economics of Defense...
  • Murdoch, J. C. (1995), "Military Alliances: Theory and Empirics", en K. Hartley y T. Sandler (ed.), Handbook of Defense Economics,...
  • Murdoch, J. C. y Sandler, T. (1982), "A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis of NATO", The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 26 (2): 237-263.
  • Murdoch, J. C. y Sandler, T. (1984), "Complementarity, Free Riding, and the Military Expenditures of NATO Allies", Journal of Public...
  • Murdoch, J. C.; Sandler, T. y Hansen, L. (1991), "An Econometric Technique for Comparing Median Voter and Oligarchy Choice Models of Collective...
  • Olson, M. (1965), The Logic of Collective Action, Harvard University Press.
  • Olson, M. y Zeckhauser, R. (1966), "An Economic Theory of Alliances", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 48 (3): 266-279.
  • Olson, M. y Zeckhauser, R. (1967), "Collective goods, comparative advantage, and alliance efficiency", en R. McKean (ed.) Issues in...
  • Oneal, J. R. (1990), "The Theory of Collective Action and Burden Sharing in NATO", International Organization, 44 (3): 379-402.
  • Oneal, J. R. y Elrod, M. A. (1989), "NATO Burden Sharing and the Forces of Change", International Studies Quarterly, 33 (4): 435-456.
  • Ostrom, Ch. W. (1977), "Evaluating Alternative Foreign Policy Decision-Making Models: An Empirical Test between an Arms Race Model and...
  • Ostrom, Ch. W. (1978), "A Reactive Linkage Model of the U.S. Defense Expenditure Policymaking Process", The American Political Science...
  • Ostrom, Ch. W. y Marra, R. F. (1986), "U.S. Defence Spending and the Soviet Estimate", The American Political Science Review, 80 (3):...
  • Palmer, G. (1990), "Alliance Politics and Issue Areas: Determinants of Defense Spending", American Journal of Political Science, 34...
  • Rattinger, H. (1975), "Armaments, Detente, and Bureaucracy: The Case of the Arms Race in Europe", The Journal of Conflict Resolution,...
  • Richardson, L. F. (1960), Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of Causes and Origins of War, Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press.
  • Rosh, R. M. (1988), "Third World Militarization Security Webs and the States they Ensnare", Journal of Conflict Resolution, 32 (4):...
  • Russett, B. (1970), What Price Vigilance?, New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
  • Russettt, B. y Starr, H. (1970), Alliances and the Price of Primacy, en B. Russett, What Price Vigilance? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press,...
  • Sandler, T. (1977), "Impurity of Defense: An Application to the Economics of Alliances", Kyklos, 30 (3): 443-460.
  • Sandler, T. (1992), Collective Action: Theory and Applications, Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.
  • Sandler, T. (1993), "The Economic Theory of Alliances: A Survey", The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 37 (3): 446-483.
  • Sandler, T. y Murdoch, J. C. (1990), "Nash-Cournot or Lindhal behavior?: An Empirical Test for the Nato Allies", The Quarterly Journal...
  • Sandler, T. y Murdoch, J. C. (2000), "On sharing NATO defense burdens in the 1990s and beyond", Fiscal Studies, 21(3): 297-327.
  • Sandler, T. y Forbes, J. F. (1980), "Burden Sharing, Strategy, and the Design of NATO", Economic Inquiry, 18 (3): 425-444.
  • Sandler, T. y Hartley, K. (2001), "Economics of Alliances: The Lessons for Collective Action", Journal of Economic Literature, 39...
  • Sandler, T., y Posnett, J. (1991), "The Private Provision of Public Goods: A Perspective on Neutrality", Public Finance Quarterly,...
  • Sandler, T.; Cauley, J. y Forbes, J. F. (1980), "In Defense of a Collective Goods Theory of Alliances", The Journal of Conflict Resolution,...
  • Schelling, T. C. (1960), The Strategy of Conflict, Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.
  • Sezgin, S. y Yildirim, J. (2002), "The Demand for Turkish Defence Expenditure", Defence and Peace Economics, 13 (2): 121-128.
  • Smith, R. P. (1980), "The Demand for Military Expenditure", The Economic Journal, 90 (360): 811-820.
  • Smith, R. P. (1989), "Models of Military Expenditure", Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4 (4): 345-359.
  • Smith, R. P. (1995), "The Demand for Military Expenditure", en K. Hartley y T. Sandler (eds.), Handbook of Defense Economics, Amsterdam:...
  • Solomon, B. (2005), "The Demand for Canadian Defence Expenditures", Defence and Peace Economics, 16 (3): 171-189.
  • Starr, H. (1974), "A Collective Goods Analysis of the Warsaw Pact after Czechoslovakia", International Organization, 28 (3): 521-532.
  • Sun, Q. y Yu, Q. (1999), "Determinants of China's Military Expenditures: 1965-93", Journal of Peace Research, 36 (1): 23-33.
  • van Ypersele de Strihou, J. (1967), "Sharing the Defense Burden Among Western Allies", The Review of Economics and Statistics, 49...
  • Wallace, M. D. (1982), "Armaments and Escalation: Two Competing Hypotheses", International Studies Quarterly, 26 (1): 37-56.
  • West, R. L. (1992), "Determinants of Military Expenditure in Developing Countries: Review of Academic Research", World Bank Discussion...
  • Wildavsky, A. (1964). The Politics of the Budgetary Process. Boston: Little, Brown.
  • Williams, J. T. y McGinnis, M. D. (1988), "Sophisticated Reaction in the U.S.-Soviet Arms Race: Evidence of Rational Expectations",...
  • Williams, J. T. y McGinnis, M. D. (1992), "Expectations and the Dynamics of U.S. Defense Budgets", en Mintz A. (ed.) The Political...
  • Wittman, D. (1991), "Nations and States: Mergers and Acquisitions, Dissolutions and Divorce", American Economic Review Papers and...
  • Yildirim, J. y Sezgin, S. (2005), "Democracy and Military Expenditure: A Cross-Country Evidence", Transition Studies Review, 12 (1):...
  • Zuk, G. y Thomson, W. R. (1982), "The Post-Coup Military Spending Question: A Pooled Cross-Sectional Time Series Analysis", The American...