Evidencia empírica sobre la utilidad de la información financiera para al predicción de los resultados futuros

• Autores: Carmelo Reverte Maya
• Localización: Revista española de financiación y contabilidad, ISSN 0210-2412, Nº 111, 2002, págs. 189-224
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.1080/02102412.2002.10779448
• Texto completo no disponible (Saber más ...)
• Dialnet Métricas: 9 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar la utilidad de la informaciónm financiera (datos contables y precios de mercado) para evaluar los resultados futuros de las empresas españolas, considerando un horizonte de predicción de hasta tres años vista.En cuanto a las magnitudes contables, tenemos en cuenta, además de las sugeridas por la estructura teórica de Ohlson [1995], ciertas varibales fundamentales consideradas en trabajos previos [Lev y Thiagarajan,1993;Abarbanell y Bushee, 1997 y Joos y Joos, 1998]. La inclusión de los precios de mercado pretende paliar la insuficiencia del sistema contable en captar de forma oportuna toda aqeulla información relevante para la valoración de la empresa. Los resultados muestran que es necesario incluir como predictores adicionales al resultado no sólo al neto sino también a los precios de mercado y a ciertas variables fundamentales de cara a evaluar la persistencia del resultado a dos y tres años vista.Sin embargo, para las predicciones a un año vista, es suficiente con utilizar el resultado del periodo.

  • English

    The objective of this paper is to analyse the uselfulness of financial information (accounting and market data) to evaluate future earnings of Spanish firms, considering a forecast horizon from one up to three years. Regarding the acocunting variables, we take into account , apart from those suggested by the Olhson [1995] theoretical framework , a series of fundamentals considered in previous studies [Lev and Thiagarajan, 1993; abarbanell and bushee, 1997 and Joos and Joos, 1998]. the inclusion of stock prices is aimed to mitigate the insufficiency of the accounting system in capturing all value-relevant information in a timely way. the results show that it is necessary to include in the earnings forecasting models, in addition to current earnings, book value of equity, stock prices and a series more accurately. However, for one-year ahead earnings predictions , the best model in terms of forecast accuracy is that including current earnings as the sole explanatory variable

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