Globalization, de-industrialization and underdevelopment in the third worls before the modern era

• Autores: Jeffrey G. Williamson
• Localización: Revista de Historia Económica = Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, ISSN 0212-6109, Año nº 24, Nº 1, 2006, págs. 9-36
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.1017/s0212610900000458
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen
  • español

    Una gran parte del diferencial de renta per cápita entre el Centro y la Periferia se produjo entre 1810 y 1940, mientras esta última incrementaba la producción de productos primarios. En este mismo período las relaciones de intercambio arrastraron a la Periferia a quebrar un boom secular con su pico entre 1870 ó 1890. Estas tendencias de las relaciones de intercambio parecen haber sido exógenas a la Periferia. Además los términos de intercambio expusieron a esta última una relativa alta volatilidad. ¿Son estas correlaciones espúreas o causales? Esta Conferencia Figuerola, dada en la Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, sostiene que son causales, el crecimiento secular y la volatilidad de las relaciones de intercambio tuvieron efectos asimétricos en el centro y en la periferia. Dentro de la ola ascendente de crecimiento, la tendencia secular creciente de las relaciones de intercambio tuvo un poderoso efecto des-industrializador en la periferia. Las relaciones de intercambio contuvieron el crecimiento y la acumulación sobre el ciclo completo que va de 1810 a 1940.

  • English

    Between 1810 and 1940, a large GDP per capita gap appeared between the industrial core and the poor periphery, the latter producing, increasingly, primary products. Over the same period, the terms of trade facing the periphery underwent a secular boom then bust, peaking in the 1870s or 1890s. These terms of trade trends appear to have been exogenous to the periphery.

    Additionally, the terms of trade facing the periphery exhibited relatively high volatility. Are these correlations spurious, or are they causal? This Figuerola Lecture, to be given at Carlos III University (Madrid), argues that they are causal, that secular growth and volatility in the terms of trade had asymmetric effects on core and periphery. On the upswing, the secular rise in its terms of trade had powerful de-industrialization effects in the periphery. Over the full cycle 1810-1940, terms of trade volatility suppressed accumulation and growth in the periphery as well

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • ABRAMOVITZ, M., and DAVID, P. A. (1973): «Economic Growth in America: Historical Parables and Realit_Iies». De Economist 121, 3: 251-272.
  • BALAND, J. M., and FRANCOIS, P. (2000): «Rent-Seeking and Resource Booms». Journal of Development Economics 61 (2), pp. 527-542.
  • BLATTMAN, C.; HWANG, J., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2004): «The Impact of the Terms of Trade on Economic Development in the Periphery, 1870-1939:...
  • BLEANEY, M., and GREENWAY, D. (1993): «Long-Run Trends in the Relative Price of Primary Commodities and in the Terms of Trade of Developing...
  • BLEANEY, M., and GREENWAY, D. (2001): «The Impact of Terms of Trade and Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan...
  • BOSKIN, M. J.; DULBERGER, E. R.; GORDON, R. J.; GRILICHES, Z., and JORGENSEN, D. W. (1998): «Consumer Prices, the Consumer Price Index, and...
  • CATÃO, L., and KAPUR, S. (2004): «Missing Link: Volatility and the Debt Intolerance Paradox». Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund,...
  • CLINGINGSMITH, D., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2004): «India’s De-Industrialization Under British Rule: New Ideas, New Evidence». NBER Working...
  • COATSWORTH, J. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2004a): «The Roots of Latin American Protectionism: Looking Before the Great Depression», in A....
  • COATSWORTH, J. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2004b): «Always Protectionist? Latin American Tariffs from Independence to Great Depression». Journal...
  • CORDEN, W. M. (1981): «The Exchange Rate, Monetary Policy and North Sea Oil: The Economic Theory of the Squeeze of Tradables». Oxford Economic...
  • CORDEN, W. M. (1984): «Booming Sector and Dutch Disease Economics: Survey and Consolidation». Oxford Economic Papers 36 (3), pp. 359-80.
  • CORDEN, W. M., and NEARY, J. P. (1982): «Booming Sector and De-Industrialization in a Small Open Economy». Economic Journal 92 (December),...
  • DEATON, A., and MILLER, R. I. (1996): «International Commodity Prices, Macroeconomic Performance and Politics in Sub-Saharan Africa». Journal...
  • DERCON, S. (2004): Insurance Against Poverty. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • DÍAZ-ALEJANDRO, C. (1984): «Latin America in the 1930s», in R. Thorp (ed.), Latin America in the 1930s. New York: Macmillan, pp. 17-49.
  • FAFCHAMPS, F. (2004): Rural Poverty, Risk and Development. Chattenham: Edward Elgar.
  • FRANKENBERG, E.; BEEGLE, K.; SIKOKI, B., and THOMAS, D. (1999): «Health, Family Planning and Well-being in Indonesia during an Economic Crisis:...
  • GORDON, R. J. (1990): The Measurement of Durable Goods Prices. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
  • GORDON, R. J. (1993): «American Economic Growth: One Big Wave?». Economics Department, Northwestern University.
  • GORDON, R. J. (2000): «Does the “New Economy” Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?». NBER WP 7833, Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau...
  • GREGORY, R. (1976): «Some Implications of the Growth of the Mineral Sector». Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics 20 (2), pp. 71-91.
  • GRILLI, E. R., and YANG, M. C. (1988): «Primary Commodity Prices, Manufactured Goods Prices, and the Terms of Trade of Developing Countries:...
  • HADASS, Y., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2003): «Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Performance 1870-1940: Prebisch and Singer Revisited». Economic...
  • HANSON, J. R. (1980): Trade in Transition: Exports from the Third World 1840-1900. New York: Academic Press.
  • ISSAWI, C. (1988): The Fertile Crescent 1800-1914: A Documentary Economic History. New York: Oxford University Press.
  • JACOBY, H. G., and SKOUFIAS, E. (1997): «Risk, Financial Markets, and Human Capital in a Developing Country». Review of Economic Studies 64...
  • JENSEN, R. (2000): «Agricultural Volatility and Investments in Children». American Economic Review 90 (May), pp. 399-404.
  • KOSE, M. A., and REIZMAN, R. (2001): «Trade Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Africa». Journal of Development Economics 65 (1), pp....
  • KRAVIS, I. B., and LIPSEY, R. E. (1971): Price Competitiveness in World Trade. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research.
  • KRAVIS, I. B., and LIPSEY, R. E. (1992): «Sources of Competitiveness of the United States and of its Multinational Firms». Review of Economics...
  • KRUEGER, A. O. (1974): «The Political Economy of the Rent-Seeking Society». American Economic Review 64 (June), pp. 291-323.
  • LEWIS, W. A. (1954): «Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour». Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies 22 (May),...
  • LEWIS, W. A. (1978): The Evolution of the International Economic Order. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
  • LINDERT, P. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2003): «Does Globalization Make the World More Unequal?», in M. Bordo; A. M. Taylor, and J. G. Williamson...
  • LIPSEY, R. E. (1994): «Quality Change and Other Influences on Measures of Export Prices of Manufactured Goods and the Terms of Trade between...
  • LIPSEY, R. E.; MOLINARI, L., and KRAVIS, I. B. (1991): «Measures of Prices and Price Competitiveness in International Trade in Manufactured...
  • MARTIN, W. (2003): «Developing Countries’ Changing Participation in World Trade». World Bank Research Observer 18 (20), pp. 187-203.
  • MENDOZA, E. (1997): «Terms of Trade Uncertainty and Economic Growth». Journal of Development Economics 54, pp. 323-356.
  • MITCHELL, B. R., and DEANE, P. (1962): Abstract of British Historical Statistics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • MOHAMMED, S. S., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2004): «Freight Rates and Productivity Gains in British Tramp Shipping 1869-1950». Explorations in...
  • MURPHY, K.; VISHNY, R., and SHLEIFER, A. (1989): «Industrialization and the Big Push». Journal of Political Economy 97, pp. 1003-1026.
  • O’ROURKE, K. H., and WILLIAMSON, J. G. (1999): Globalization and History. Cambridge, Mass.: Cambridge University Press.
  • PREBISCH, R. (1950): The Economic Development of Latin America and Its Principal Problems. New York: United Nations Economic Commission for...
  • PRITCHETT, L. (1997): «Divergence, Big Time». Journal of Economic Perspectives 11 (3), pp. 3-17.
  • RAMEY, G., and RAMEY, V. A. (1995): «Cross-country Evidence on the Link between Volatility and Growth». NBER Working Paper 4959, Cambridge,...
  • ROSENWEIG, M. R., and WOLPIN, K. I. (1993): «Credit Market Constraints, Consumption Smoothing, and the Accumulation of Durable Production...
  • SACHS, J., and WARNER, A. (2001): «The Curse of Natural Resources». European Economic Review 45 (May), pp. 827-838.
  • SPRAOS, J. (1980): «The Statistical Debate on the Net Barter Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures». Economic Journal...
  • SINGER, H. W. (1950): «The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries». American Economic Review 40, pp. 473-485.
  • THOMAS, D.; BEEGLE, K.; FRANKENBERG, E.; SIKOKI, B.; STRAUSS, J., and TERUEL, G. (2004): «Education in a Crisis». Journal of Development Economics...
  • TORNELL, A., and LANE, P. R. (1999): «The Voracity Effect». American Economic Review 89 (1), pp. 22-46.
  • TORNELL, A., and VELASCO, A. (1992): «The Tragedy of the Commons and Economic Growth: Why Does Capital Flow from Poor to Rich Countries?»....
  • WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2002): «Land, Labor and Globalization in the Third World 18701940». Journal of Economic History 62 (1), pp. 55-85.
  • WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2005a): Globalization and the Poor Periphery before the Modern Era: The Ohlin Lectures. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
  • WILLIAMSON, J. G. (2005b): «Explaining World Tariffs 1870-1938». Stolper-Samuelson, Strategic Tariffs and State Revenues», in R. Findlay;...