Contents: Introduction. - 1. How much will it cost?. - 1.1. Some illustrative calculations. - 2. A special relationship? Trade integration and the EU-TK customs union. - 3. The human potential of the Turkish economy: dynamic demography coupled with insufficient human capital formation. - 3.1. Demographic dynamics. - 3.2. Human capital accumulation. - 3.3. Duality. - 4. The outlook for growth. - 5. Migration. - 6. Concluding remarks