Candidaturas independientes, gasto en campaña y desempeño electoral en las elecciones de convencionales constituyentes en Chile en 2021

• ÁLvarez Martínez, Ariel ^[1] ; Navia, Patricio Daniel ^[2]
  1. [1] Universidad Diego Portales

     Universidad Diego Portales

     Santiago, Chile

     
  2. [2] New York University/Universidad Diego Portales
• Localización: Política y gobierno, ISSN 1405-1060, ISSN-e 1685-2037, Vol. 31, Nº. 1, 2024
• Idioma: español
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Independent Candidates, Campaign Spending and Electoral Performance in the Constitutional Convention Election in Chile in 2021
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Dialnet Métricas: 1 Cita
• Resumen
  • español

    Aunque en democracias con sistemas de partidos institucionalizados los candidatos en su mayoría son militantes de partidos, la cultivación del voto personal y el declive en la identificación partidista facilitan el éxito de candidaturas independientes. A partir de una discusión teórica sobre los determinantes del éxito electoral, postulamos hipótesis asociadas a la militancia partidista, a la afiliación de candidatos a listas de partidos y al efecto del gasto en campaña sobre el éxito electoral. Para evaluarlas, usamos la elección de convencionales constituyentes en Chile en 2021, cuyas reglas electorales fueron las mismas para militantes y para independientes. Así, 790 de los 1 278 candidatos fueron independientes (61.8%). De las 138 personas electas en distritos regulares, 88 eran independientes (63.8%), aunque algunos postularon en listas de partidos. Ser independiente en lista de independientes tuvo un efecto positivo. Reportamos que el gasto en campaña repercute de manera positiva en el éxito electoral tanto de independientes como de militantes partidistas.

  • English

    Although most candidates in democracies with institutionalized party systems are party militants, the cultivation of a personal vote and the declining partisanship contribute to the electoral success of candidates who are not party militants. Based on a theoretical discussion on the determinants of electoral success, we postulate hypotheses associated to party militancy and affiliation to party lists and the effect of campaign spending on electoral success. We use the case of the constitutional convention in Chile in 2021 where the registration requirements were the same for party militants and independents. This way, 790 of the 1 278 candidates were independents (61.8%). Among the 138 elected members in regular districts, 88 were independents (63.8%), although some ran on party lists. Being an independent in a list of independents had a positive effect. Campaign spending positively impacts the electoral success of independents and party militants.

• Referencias bibliográficas
  • Citas Abramowitz, Alan I. y Steven Webster. 2016. “The Rise of negative partisanship and the nationalization of U.S. elections in the 21st...
  • Acevedo, Sergio y Patricio Navia. 2015. “Un método no endógeno para medir el gasto electoral en Chile, 2005-2009.” Revista Mexicana de Ciencias...
  • André, Audrey y Sam Depauw. 2014. “District magnitude and the personal vote.” Electoral Studies, 35:102-114.
  • Bartels, Larry M. 2000. “Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952-1996.” American Journal of Political Science, 44(1): 33-50.
  • Bartels, Larry M. 2002. “Beyond the running tally: Partisan bias in political perceptions.” Political Behavior, 24:117-150.
  • Brancati, Dawn. 2008. “Winning Alone. The Electoral Fate of Independent Candidates Worldwide.” The Journal of Politics, 70(3):648-662.
  • Cabezas, José Miguel, Hugo Jofré, y Patricio Navia. 2022. “The effect of campaign spending, district magnitude and incumbency when electoral...
  • Cain, Bruce E., John A. Ferejohn, y Morris P. Fiorina. 1984. “The Constituency Service Basis of the Personal Vote for U.S. Representatives...
  • Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller y Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Carey, John M. y Mathew S. Shugart. 1995. “Incentives to Cultivate a Personal Vote: A Rank Ordering of Electoral Formulas.” Electoral Studies,...
  • Carroll, Royce y Monika Nalepa. 2019. “When Does the Personal Vote Matter for Party Loyalty? The Conditional Effects of Candidate-Centred...
  • Cheibub, José Antonio y Gisela Sin. 2015. “Order in Chaos Intra Party Coordination in Open List PR systems.” Annual Midwest Political Science...
  • Cheibub, Jose Antonio y Gisela Sin. 2020. “Preference vote and intra-party competition in open list PR systems.” Journal of Theoretical Politics,...
  • Cox, Gary W. y Michael F. Thies. 2000. “How much does money matter? “Buying” Votes in Japan, 1967-1990.” Comparative Political Studies, 33(1):37-57.
  • Dalton, Russel J. 2013. Citizen Politics: Public Opinion and Political Parties in Advanced Industrial Democracies. Washington, DC: Sage Press.
  • Dalton, Russell J. 2016. “Party Identification and its Implications.” Oxford: Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics.
  • De La Cerda, Nicolás. 2022. “Unstable Identities: The Decline of Partisanship in Contemporary Chile.” Journal of Politics in Latin America,...
  • Diamond, L., J. Hartlyn, y JJ. Linz. 1999. “Democracy in Developing Countries: Latin America.” Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1-70.
  • Erikson, Robert. 1972. “Malapportionment, gerrymandering, and party fortunes in congressional elections.” American Political Science Review....
  • Fábrega, Jorge. 2022. “Ordenamiento Ideológico en la Convención Constitucional Chilena.” Revista de Ciencia Política. 42(1): 127-151.
  • Fiorina, Morris P. 2002. “Parties and Partisanship a 40-year Retrospective.” Political Behavior, 24(2): 93-115.
  • Garzia D., Ferreira da Silva F, y De Angelis, A. 2022 “Partisan dealignment and the personalisation of politics in West European parliamentary...
  • Golosov, Grigori. 2003. “Electoral Systems and Party Formation in Russia: A Cross-Regional Analysis.” Comparative Political Studies, 36(8):912-935.
  • Green, Donald P. y Jonathan S Krasno. 1988. “Salvation for the spendthrift incumbent; Re-estimating the effects of campaign spending in House...
  • Grofman, Bernard. 1999. “SNTV, STV, and single-member-district systems: theoretical comparisons and contrast.” Elections in Japan, Korea,...
  • Haime, A., & Cantú, F. 2022. “Negative Partisanship in Latin America.” Latin American Politics and Society 64(1): 72-92.
  • Herrera, Richard, y Michael Yawn. 1999. “The emergence of the Personal Vote.” The Journal of Politics, 61(1):136-150.
  • Hetherington, Marc J. 2001. “Resurgent Mass Partisanship: The Role of Elite Polarization.” American Political Science Review, 95(3):619-631.
  • Jacobson, G. 1978. “The effects of campaign spending in congressional elections.” American Political Science Review, 72(2):469-491.
  • Klar S. y Krupnikov Y. 2016. Independent Politics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Le Foulon, Carmen, y Valeria Palanza. 2021. “Elecciones a la Convención Constituyente: innovación y renovación.” Puntos de Referencia. Centro...
  • Lupu, Noam. 2013. “Partisanship in Latin America the Latin American voter: Pursuing representation and accountability in challenging contexts.”...
  • Mainwaring, Scott, y Timothy Scully. 1995. La Construcción de Instituciones Democráticas: sistemas de partidos en América Latina. Santiago:...
  • Morales Quiroga, Mauricio, y Rafael Piñeiro Rodríguez. 2010. “Gasto en campaña y éxito electoral de los candidatos a diputados en Chile 2005.”...
  • Morales Quiroga, Mauricio. 2020. “Estallido social en Chile 2019: Participación, representación, confianza institucional y escándalos públicos.”...
  • Navia, Patricio y Rodrigo Osorio (2015). “It's the Christian Democrats' Fault: Declining Political Identification in Chile, 1957–2012.”...
  • Nemoto, Kuniaki, y Matthew S. Shugart. 2013. “Localism and coordination under three different electoral systems: The national district of...
  • Samuels, David. 2001. “When does every penny count? Intra-party Competition and Campaign Finance in Brazil.” Party Politics, 7(1):89-102.
  • Samuels, David. 2006. “Sources of mass partisanship in Brazil.” Latin American Politics and Society, 48(2):1-27.
  • Seawright, Jason, y John Gerring. 2008. “Case Selection Techniques in Case Study Research: A Menu of Qualitative and Quantitative Options.”...
  • Titelman, Noam, and Javier Sajuria. 2023. “Why vote for an independent? The relevance of negative identity, independent identity, and dealignment...
  • Toro Maureira, Sergio, y Macarena Valenzuela Beltrán. 2018. “Chile 2017: Ambiciones, estrategias y expectativas en el estreno de las nuevas...
  • Valenzuela, J. Samuel. 1995. “Orígenes y transformaciones del sistema de partidos en Chile.” Estudios Públicos, 58:5-80.