Resumen de Probability of Continuous use of the Delivery Service in a Lima Community: an Application of the Markov Chains

Ricardo Villena Presentación, Heriberto Reyes Perfecto, Roger Orlando Luján Ruiz, Walter Andia Valencia, Judith Soplin Rojas

• Purpose:  The objective of this research is to determine the probability of the continuous use of delivery in a Lima community in a scenario of normality so that organizations can predict future scenarios by managing uncertainty and, in addition, plan the efficient use of resources.

    Theoretical framework:  Organizations, to increase access to their products, design different distribution channels; These have become strategic actors during the health emergency such as the delivery service The technique used is Markov chains, a method that allows estimating and predicting the behavior of the variables in the state of normality.

    Design/methodology/approach: The research design is non-experimental; In response, a questionnaire was applied to the sample of a locality in Lima (Peru). Its reliability was measured by Cronbach's alpha; In addition, the technique for estimating probabilities adheres to stochastic methods; these are the Markov Chains.

    Findings: Among the most relevant results, it was determined that the probabilities can help decide the continuity of this service, along with the possibility of expanding the channels for organizations and the possibility of generating employment in economically vulnerable communities.

    Research, Practical & Social implications:  It is suggested for future research to analyze whole city of Lima and conclude if the probability is similar like community.

    Originality/value: The results indicate the probability of continuing of service delivery in the normality.