Relación entre los indicadores financieros del modelo Altman Z y el puntaje Z

• Isaac-Roque, Daniel ^[1] ; Caicedo-Carrero, Andrés
  1. [1] Fundación Universitaria Konrad Lorenz

     Fundación Universitaria Konrad Lorenz

     Colombia

     
• Localización: Retos: Revista de Ciencias de la Administración y Economía, ISSN-e 1390-8618, ISSN 1390-6291, Vol. 13, Nº. 25, 2023 (Ejemplar dedicado a: (abril-septiembre)), págs. 139-158
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.17163/ret.n25.2023.09
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Relationship between the financial indicators of the Altman Z-model and the Z-score.
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Dialnet Métricas: 5 Citas
• Resumen
  • español

    desde un punto de vista teórico, no existe un consenso general sobre la identificación de las dificultades financieras de una empresa. El modelo Altman Z-Score es reconocido en la literatura como un indicador para medir la probabilidad de insolvencia financiera. Aunqueeste modelo es muy difundido y utilizado como métrica para predecir las dificultades financieras, no existe acuerdo sobre los factores que determinan el comportamiento o resultado del puntaje Z. En este sentido, el propósito de este estudio es analizar los factores que determinan el comportamiento del puntaje Z-Score en las empresas colombianas. Esta investigación se desarrolla bajo un enfoque metodológico cuantitativo,con un diseño de tipo correlacional. Este alcance de investigación busca medir la asociación entre el puntaje Z de Altman y los indicadores financieros que determinan su resultado; para tal fin se analizan un total de 2684 empresas del sector comercial colombiano que reportaroninformación financiera de forma sistemática durante el periodo 2016-2020. Los resultados de las pruebas estadísticas efectuadas revelan que existe relación directa entre el indicador que mide la estructura financiera (patrimonio/pasivo) y el puntaje Z de Altman. Adicionalmente,permiten concluir que, desde el punto de vista del modelo de Altman, las empresas que capitalizan sus beneficios y mantienen bajo control su nivel de endeudamiento son empresas financieramente estables y con baja probabilidad de insolvencia.

  • English

    from a theoretical point of view, there is no general consensus on the identification of a company’s financial difficulties. The Altman Z-Score model is recognized in the literature as an indicator for measuring the probability of financial insolvency. While this model is widely used as a metric for predicting financial distress, there is no agreement on the factors that determine the behavior or outcome of the Z-Score. In this sense, the purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that determine the behavior of the Z-Score in Colombian companies. The research is developed under a quantitative methodological approach, with a correlational design. This scope of research seeks to measure the association between the Altman Z-Score and the financial indicators that determine its outcome; to this end, a total of 2,684 companies in the Colombian commercial sector that reported financial information on a systematic basis during the period 2016-2020 are analyzed. The results of the statistical tests carried out reveal that there is a direct relationship between the indicator measuring financial structure (equity/liabilities) and the Altman Z-Score. This leads to the conclusion that a company that seeks to capitalize profits and keep debt levels under control, from the point of view of Altman’s model, will be a company with financial stability and a low probability of financial insolvency.

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