O efeito semana do ano e a hipótese dos mercados adaptativos: evidências a partir de uma nova base de dados

• Júlio Lobão ^[1] ; Ana Costa ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidade Do Porto

     Universidade Do Porto

     Santo Ildefonso, Portugal

     
• Localización: Revista galega de economía: Publicación Interdisciplinar da Facultade de Ciencias Económicas e Empresariais, ISSN-e 2255-5951, ISSN 1132-2799, Vol. 31, Nº. 3, 2022
• Idioma: portugués
• DOI: 10.15304/rge.31.3.8411
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • English

    In this paper, for the first time, we study the calendar anomaly called “the week-of-the-year effect” in the Portuguese stock market. The week-of-the year effect was originally identified by Levy and Yagil (2012) and refers to the occurrence of significantly different market returns during certain weeks of the year. The sample used was built from a new historical database covering about 120 years of the Portuguese stock market. It was found that the first and last weeks of the year generated significantly higher returns than the other weeks of the year. Furthermore, a subsample analysis reveals that the week-of-the year effect has evolved over time. In general, our results suggest that the Adaptive Markets Hypothesis provides a better explanation for the dynamics of the Portuguese stock market.

  • português

    Neste artigo estudamos pela primeira vez a anomalia de calendário designada de efeito semana do ano no mercado de acções português. O efeito semana do ano foi identificado originalmente por Levy e Yagil (2012) e refere-se à verificação de rendibilidades de mercado significativamente diferentes em algumas semanas do ano. A amostra utilizada foi construída a partir de uma nova base de dados histórica que cobre cerca de 120 anos de história do mercado accionista português. Verificou-se que a primeira e a última semanas do ano geraram rendibilidades significativamente mais elevadas do que as restantes semanas do ano. Além disso, a análise de subamostras revelou que o efeito semana do ano evoluiu de forma adaptativa ao longo do tempo. Em geral, os nossos resultados sugerem que a Hipótese dos Mercados Adaptativos proporciona uma melhor explicação para a dinâmica do mercado de acções português.

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