¿Cuál será el coste de las tecnologías de generación eléctrica renovable en el futuro?

• Pablo DEL RÍO ^[1] ; Christoph P. KIEFER ^[2]
  1. [1] CSIC
  2. [2] Fraunhofer ISI
• Localización: Papeles de economía española, ISSN 0210-9107, Nº 174, 2022, págs. 34-50
• Idioma: español
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    Las tecnologías renovables y, más concretamente, las tecnologías de generación eléctrica basadas en fuentes de energía renovables constituyen un pilar básico en la transición energética necesaria para lograr los objetivos del Acuerdo de París, y su coste es un elemento relevante en la misma. El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar los rangos de costes nivelados probables de dichas tecnologías en el futuro, con especial atención a las tecnologías eólicas y solares. La revisión sistemática de la literatura ha permitido identificar 25 documentos con predicciones de los costes nivelados a futuro en distintos países del mundo. Nuestros resultados muestran un rango de costes en 2030 para la eólica terrestre de entre 16 y 129 euros/MWh, entre 43 y 178 euros /MWh para la eólica marina, entre 31 y 152 euros/MWh para la solar fotovoltaica de techo y entre 14 y 117 euros/MWh para suelo y de entre 44 y 105 /MWh para la solar termoeléctrica. Los rangos de costes a 2050 serían menores, y a un nivel inferior: entre 15 y 40 eurosMWh para la eólica terrestre, 25 y 80 euros/MWh para la eólica marina, 9 y 83 euros/MWh para la solar fotovoltaica y 45 y 101 euros/ MWh para la solar termoeléctrica. Estos costes futuros suponen reducciones considerables con respecto a los costes actuales. En términos porcentuales, las mayores reducciones esperadas tendrán lugar en la eólica marina y la solar fotovoltaica, seguida de la solar termoeléctrica y la eólica terrestre.

  • English

    Renewable energy technologies and, more specifically, renewable electricity generation technologies are a main pillar of the energy transition which is needed to achieve the targets of the Paris Agreement, and their costs will be a relevant element of this transition. The aim of this article is to identify the expected ranges of levelised electricity costs (LCOE) of those technologies in the future, with a specific focus on the wind and solar technologies. The systematic review of the literature has allowed us to identify 25 documents with predictions of the levelised electricity costs in different countries in the world in the future. Our results show different cost ranges for the different technologies: in 2030 these will be between 16 and 129 €/MWh for wind on-shore, 43 and 178 €/MWh for wind off-shore, 31 and 152 €/MWh for roof-top solar PV, 14 and 117 €/MWh for ground-mounted PV and 44 and 105 €/MWh for solar thermal electricity.

    In 2050, the ranges will be shorter and at lower levels: 15 and 40 €/MWh for wind on- shore, 25 and 80 €/MWh for offshore wind, 9 and 83 €/MWh for PV and 45 and 101 €/ MWh for solar thermal electricity. These future costs involve considerable reductions with respect to current costs. In percentage terms, the greatest expected cost reductions will occur in wind off-shore and solar PV, followed by solar thermal and wind on-shore.

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