Monetary integration in south america: Election of candidates through unsupervised machine learning

• Autores: León Padilla, Eduardo Marín Nicolalde
• Localización: Revista de economía mundial, ISSN 1576-0162, Nº 61, 2022, págs. 63-89
• Idioma: inglés
• DOI: 10.33776/rem.v0i61.5155
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Integración monetaria en sudamérica: Elección de candidatos a través del aprendizaje automático no supervisado
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo
• Resumen
  • español

    Resumen Aplicando técnicas de Aprendizaje Automático no Supervisado para un conjunto de variables nominales (señaladas por la teoría de las áreas monetarias óptimas [OCA] y los criterios del Tratado de Maastricht) e indicadores industriales (basados en patrones de producción similares), este documento tiene como objetivo identificar candidatos potenciales para una integración en Sudamérica (SA). La principal conclusión es que, según el agrupamiento de los indicadores nominales e industriales, los países en mejor posición para una hipotética integración monetaria en SA son Chile, Colombia y Perú (y Ecuador en menor medida). Este grupo de economías, pertenecientes a la Alianza del Pacífico, se encuentran en mejores condiciones para cumplir con diversos criterios de integración monetaria regional, como la convergencia nominal y patrones productivos similares.

  • English

    Applying Unsupervised Machine Learning techniques to a set of nominal variables (based on the optimum currency area [OCA] theory and the Maastricht Treaty criteria) and industrial indicators (based on similar production patterns), this paper aims to identify potential candidates for a monetary integration in South America (SA). The main conclusion is that, according to the clustering of the nominal and industrial indicators, the countries in best position for a hypothetical monetary integration in SA are Chile, Colombia, and Perú (and Ecuador to a lesser extent); countries that are generally members of the same cluster. This group of economies, which belong to the Pacific Alliance, are in a better position to meet various criteria for regional monetary integration, such as nominal convergence and similar production patterns.

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