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At the onset of the Conference on the Future of Europe (CoFoE), the future of the European Union’s expansion in the Western Balkans (WB) seems to have reached a new stalemate. Yet, the CoFoE could offer an opportunity to rekindle the EU’s agenda in the WB. Much, however, may depend on the outcome of the process.
This paper argues that the CoFoE could provide a unique opportunity for the EU to clarify the relationship between its two approaches: one based on the objective of transforming the WB through EU membership and the other emphasising more geopolitical considerations as justification for EU membership. Failing to do so may further undermine the influence of the EU in the region while strengthening the influence of the other external powers.
This article discusses these points in five parts. The first examines the problems linked with the place allocated to EU enlargement in the CoFoE’s agenda. The second part deals with the concepts of backsliding and competitive authoritarianism, which have characterised recent changes in domestic politics in the WB as well as the related changes made to EU enlargement policy. The third part gives an overview of the geopolitical rivalries in the WB. The fourth discusses the tensions between the EU’s transformative approach in the WB and a more geopolitical approach. The fifth part includes suggestions for a possible way ahead to re-centre the discussions within the CoFoE on EU enlargement.
