Resumen de Agriculture And Commodity Export And Its Productivity And Production In Sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from time series data of four countries

Zewdie Habte Shikur

• We analyze the evolution of output and exports of Agriculture and Commodity in four countries of Sub-Saharan Africa: Cote d´Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda, for the period 1961-2019. The increase of Exports of Coffee and other goods, have had a positive impact on economic development.This study aimed to examine the long and short-run relationship using the Johansen co-integration test and a vector error correction model, as well as the causation direction by using Granger causality test, between commodity export and commodity productivity and production. With the exception of Ethiopian oilseeds, the results of the vector error correction model demonstrated that cocoa, coffee, and tea exports were significantly and positively linked with cocoa and tea productivity and production growth in all nations. Except for Ethiopian oilseeds, the coefficients of error correction model revealed that there was significant long-run causation from five independent variables to cocoa, coffee, and tea productivity and production in all of the study countries. The results indicated that the causal relationship between commodity export and agricultural growth has heterogeneous patterns across crop commodities and African countries. The findings of this study's heterogeneity could imply that in casual relationship between commodity export and commodity production, contexts of the study, spatial dimensions and agricultural policies affect direction of causality.