Gasto en inversión pública y crecimiento económico estatal en México: implicaciones para la recuperación económica post-COVID-19

• Domingo Rodríguez Benavides ^[1] ; Miguel Ángel Mendoza González ^[2] ; José Antonio Climent Hernández ^[1]
  1. [1] Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana

     Universidad Autónoma Metropolitana

     México

     
  2. [2] Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

     Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México

     México

     
• Localización: Contaduría y administración, ISSN 0186-1042, ISSN-e 2448-8410, Vol. 66, Nº. Extra 5, 2021 (Ejemplar dedicado a: lecciones de la pandemia de Covid-2019)
• Idioma: español
• DOI: 10.22201/fca.24488410e.2021.4505
• Títulos paralelos:
  • Public investment spending and economic growth of Mexican states: implications for post-COVID-19 economic recovery
• Enlaces
  • Texto completo (pdf)
• Resumen
  • español

    En este trabajo examinamos con un enfoque keynesiano la importancia del gasto de inversión pública para promover el crecimiento del PIB per cápita de las entidades federativas en México. Los resultados de nuestras estimaciones para el periodo 1989-2019 muestran la presencia de una relación de largo plazo entre el gasto de inversión pública y el PIB ambos per cápita, lo cual se refuerza por el resultado de la prueba de no causalidad en panel empleada que sugiere que la dirección de causalidad en el sentido de Granger entre estas variables va del gasto de inversión público per cápita al PIB per cápita, lo cual en última instancia puede ser interpretado como evidencia de que este tipo de gasto de inversión público es un motor del crecimiento por entidad federativa en México. Este resultado es relevante porque sugiere la necesidad de no postergar los grandes proyectos de infraestructura pública emprendidos por el gobierno federal para promover el crecimiento económico principalmente en las condiciones recesivas actuales generadas por la crisis del Covid-19 en México

  • English

    In this paper we examine with a Keynesian approach the importance of public investment spending in promoting per capita GDP growth in Mexican states. The results of our estimations for the period 1989- 2019 show the presence of a long-run relationship between public investment spending and GDP both per capita, which is reinforced by the result of the panel non-causality test employed that suggests that the direction of causality in the Granger sense between these variables goes from public investment spending per capita to GDP per capita, which ultimately can be interpreted as evidence that this type of public investment spending is a driver of growth by federative entity in Mexico. This result is relevant because it suggests the need not to postpone large public infrastructure projects undertaken by the federal government to promote economic growth mainly in the current recessionary conditions generated by the Covid-19 crisis in Mexico

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